These signs point to Ukrainian victory sooner than critics think

Insanity, they say, consists of doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

Russia’s effort to push ever more of its poorly trained, underequipped men into the meat grinder around Bakhmut — where 20,000 of them have died since December, the Pentagon estimates — fits the definition perfectly.

Russian commanders’ continued obstinacy, following months of World War I-style trench warfare, reeks of a fear of reprisals by President Vladimir Putin, who is desperate to point to a modicum of progress in his invasion ahead of the annual May 9 military parade on Red Square.

Together with the fissure that has opened up between Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group (which has been in charge of Russian attacks around Bakhmut), and the Russian defense ministry, these are signs the highly anticipated Ukrainian offensive might live up to the hype.

Militaries, an old adage goes, are defeated very slowly and then all at once. In Russia’s case, the writing has been on the wall since its initial attack on Kyiv collapsed.

Prigozhin warned Saturday that Wagner mercenaries will have to withdraw from Bakhmut unless Russian command provides them with more ammunition.

In response, a leaked letter from the defense ministry enumerated all the artillery ammunition and equipment provided to the group.

Adding insult to injury, Prigozhin sarcastically offered employment with the Wagner Group to Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev, who was dismissed Sunday from his post as deputy defense minister for logistics.

Exchanges like this mean only one thing: Russian defeat is in the air, and those around Putin have their knives out.

To be sure, the Ukrainians suffer from their share of logistical and supply challenges.

It could not be otherwise with a military that has had to absorb a striking diversity of equipment and weapons systems from dozens of different nations, each with its own intricate system of support and maintenance.

Ammunition is running low, for example. While the Europeans are standing up a special fund to accelerate production, France and Poland continue to disagree about where the new supplies should be manufactured: in European Union countries or anywhere in the world?

True to the reputation of German engineering, Berlin’s high-tech howitzers — which come with their own vacuum cleaner and require the crew to wear slippers inside to protect the sensitive electronics — may not be best suited for Ukraine’s mud season.

Yet the gap between the Russian and Ukrainian militaries is only widening.

The looming counteroffensive pits Leopard, Challenger and Abrams tanks along with other NATO-grade armor against increasingly decrepit Russian equipment and demoralized troops with no idea what they are fighting for.

This could bring about a repeat of the scenario seen around Kharkiv last year, when Russian forces in quick succession abandoned their positions in panic.

American politicians’ reactions may provide an indication of where things are headed, too.

Nothing mobilizes support for Ukraine like the prospect of Ukrainian victory.

Tellingly, House leader Kevin McCarthy rebuked a question Monday from a Russian “journalist” representing the state-run RIA Novosti agency, in a stark departure from his earlier equivocation on the subject.

“I support aid for Ukraine. I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine. I do not support your killing of the children either,” McCarthy said at a Jerusalem press conference.

The more likely Ukrainian victory seems, the less incentive politicians on the left or right have to waver about US assistance to the country or call for appeasing Russia.

Instead, they’ll be rushing to claim their part of the credit, as McCarthy already seems to be doing, for Ukraine’s successes on the battlefield.

The war is not over. Ukraine still needs a steady stream of Western assistance — from financial aid to keep basic government services running, through ammunition, to weapons systems that will ensure Ukraine retains a battlefield edge.

Especially if Ukrainian air defenses are overstretched, the question of Western fighter jets — F-16s, in particular — may reassert itself with urgency as a means to keep Russian bombers away from Ukrainian skies.

Reinforcing Ukrainian air defenses would help prevent war crimes of the kind the world saw over the weekend in the city of Uman, where a Russian strike killed 23 civilians, including six children.

Yet the tide has turned.

Ukraine’s victory, and possibly a collapse of Russia’s regime, might both be closer than those predicting a long war suggest.

Dalibor Rohac is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Twitter: @DaliborRohac