Your favourite Bay Space deal with has seemingly doubled in value since 2015, and whereas inflation is slowing, value will increase will definitely be on the menu once more within the close to future because the area braces for the affect of President Donald Trump’s widespread tariffs.
Inflation has risen 36% nationally up to now decade and it’s painfully apparent at your favourite native sandwich spot and occasional retailers. Many shops have needed to replace their costs so continuously that once-printed costs are coated up utilizing paper, markers and tape.
Utilizing on-line opinions and images of menus from years previous, the Bay Space Information Group tracked the value of a number of iconic Bay Space meals gadgets to see how inflation has affected your morning donut run, your mid-week workplace lunch or that late-night burrito.
Proper exterior the gates of San Jose State College sits La Victoria, a neighborhood quick informal burrito chain well-known for its iconic orange sauce. Based mostly on pictures of the menu from on-line opinions going again a decade, an everyday burrito was $5.45 in February 2015. Since then, the value has been raised at the very least eight instances, and as of Could 2025 value $12.95.
“If you go back 15 years, burritos were still like $4,” remembers Nick Barrita, the operations supervisor for La Victoria. “Everything was pretty steady. We would raise prices by 50 cents here and there, but then when COVID hit, everything just skyrocketed,” mentioned Barrita, who has labored at La Vic, because the restaurant is extensively recognized, for over twenty years.
“It’s just mind boggling to think that everything has doubled in price, including labor,” Barrita mentioned.
Rebecca Ham, a San Jose native who used to go to La Victoria extra continuously, mentioned if she wants an inexpensive meal now, she finds herself subsequent door at a nationwide fast-food chain as an alternative.
“When you get low on money, you might want a burrito, but you can’t afford a burrito,” Ham mentioned. “It’s just crazy.”
Whereas long-time followers of the burritos and orange sauce would possibly lament how their go-to meal has greater than doubled in value, the rise is comparable across the Bay Space for a lot of native gems and large chains.
Wanting on the knowledge compiled by this information group, Sean Randolph, senior director of the Bay Space Council Financial Institute, a neighborhood suppose tank, pointed to the interval of upswings between 2020 and 2024. “You can see the pandemic effect coming in,” he mentioned. Since 2020, “shortages due to supply chain disruptions combined with accelerated federal spending,” to drive client costs up, he mentioned.
Randolph mentioned these components will not be distinctive to the area, however are compounded by the truth that “everything here is just more expensive anyway.”
Even probably the most inexpensive choices have gotten way more costly. A double-double from In-N-Out, particularly on the Alameda location, was $3.70 in June of 2015. A decade later, the identical burger prices $6.25, a 69% improve.
A dozen common donuts at Colonial Donuts on Lakeshore Avenue in Oakland was a fair $12 in March 2016, however the value has been up to date a handful of instances since then, and now these twelve donuts value $22. That’s a rise of 83% in 10 years.
Census knowledge reveals revenue has additionally grown considerably up to now decade, however not as shortly as many of the meals gadgets we tracked. California’s median family revenue grew 48% from $64,500 in 2015 to $95,500 2023, the latest 12 months for which knowledge is on the market. The minimal wage within the state has grown 83%, from $9 in 2015 to $16.50 in 2025.
Whereas inflation ballooned within the first years of the last decade, the month-to-month will increase in costs have slowed in current months. However not all costs comply with the identical trajectory and a few classes have grown even quicker, like groceries and consuming out, in response to knowledge from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“Food prices are considered to be volatile,” mentioned Randolph, the economist. “It is just a little bit of a different category with different drivers than inflation broadly,” although he mentioned these costs definitely replicate folks’s experiences consuming out.
Even Angie Marquez, a freshman at San Jose State College, has famous value modifications at her favourite banh mi spot close to campus. “I remember last semester you could add extra veggies, no charge. Now we have to pay for those veggies,” she mentioned.
“I understand, because I know things are getting expensive,” Marquez mentioned. “But I’m a broke college student.”
And costs are solely anticipated to maintain rising. “We’re not really seeing anything close to the full effect yet,” Randolph mentioned, as President Donald Trump has imposed new tariffs on international items. Whereas the implementation has been chaotic and piecemeal, it has despatched some costs hovering already, with extra value hikes on the horizon.
At La Victoria, it’s getting dearer and tougher to supply some supplies, like their customized printed cups and different packaging from China. The corporate tried to get forward of it and put in a giant order on the finish of final 12 months, Barrita mentioned. However now due to the chaos, the brand new provides are delayed and he’s not certain when they are going to are available in, or what tariffs they should pay after they truly ship.
“Everybody is scrambling, because they don’t know what’s going to happen next,” Barrita mentioned.
The Bay Space Information Group will proceed to trace the costs of this stuff within the coming months. Verify again for extra tales.
