Within the early hours of June 22, 2025, native time, america attacked three nuclear services in Iran with “bunker buster” bombs and Tomahawk missiles.
The Dialog U.S. turned to Javed Ali, an professional on Center East affairs on the College of Michigan and a former senior official on the Nationwide Safety Council throughout the first Trump administration, to speak by means of why Trump selected now to behave and what the potential repercussions could possibly be.
What do we all know in regards to the nature and timing of US involvement?
President Trump has been forcefully hinting for days days that such a strike may occur, whereas on the identical time opening up a window of negotiation by suggesting as late as June 20 that he would decide “within the next two weeks.” We all know Trump may be very unpredictable, however he should have assessed that the present circumstances offered a possibility for U.S. motion.
Trump met with the Nationwide Safety Council twice within the days main as much as the strike. Usually at such conferences the president is offered with a menu of army choices, which normally boil down to 3: a slender possibility, a center floor and a “if you really want to go big” strike.
The one he picked, I might argue, is someplace between the slender possibility and the center floor one.
The “go big” choices would have been an assault on nuclear websites and Iranian management – be that senior members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, or probably the Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The extra slender method would have been only one facility, more likely to have been Fordo – a deeply fortified uranium enrichment website buried inside a mountain.
What did happen was a strike there, but additionally at two different websites – Isfahan and Natanz.
U.S. army chiefs confirmed that that 12 GBU-57s – the so-called 30,000-pound bunker busters – had been dropped by B-2 bombers on Fordo, and two on Isfahan.
That means to me that the army aim of the operation was to destroy Iran’s capability to supply and or retailer extremely enriched uranium in a one-time strike fairly than drag the U.S. right into a extra extended battle.
Has the strike achieved Trump’s goals?
It’ll take a while to correctly assess the extent to which Iran’s capability to supply or retailer extremely enriched uranium has been broken.
Actually we all know that the bombs hit their targets, they usually have been broken – however to what extent isn’t instantly clear. Basic Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Workers, stated that every one three goal websites had suffered “extremely severe damage and destruction” – probably rolling again from Trump’s “fully obliterated” evaluation. Maybe most tellingly, Iran has not commented but on the extent of the injury.
However to Trump, the target was not simply army however political, too. Trump has lengthy stated “no” to a nuclear Iran whereas on the identical time has expressed that he has no want to pull the U.S. into one other conflict.
And this strike could enable Trump to attain these seemingly contradictory objectives. If U.S. preliminary assessments are appropriate, Iran’s nuclear program could have been severely compromised. However the strikes gained’t essentially pull U.S. into the battle totally – except Iran retaliates in such a approach that necessitates additional U.S. motion.
And that’s what Iran’s supreme chief and his army generals might want to work out: Ought to Iran retaliate and, in that case, is it ready to take care of a heavier U.S. army response – particularly when there is no such thing as a finish in sight to its present battle with Israel.
An operational timeline of a strike on Iran is displayed throughout a information convention with U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Workers Gen. Dan Caine and U.S. Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth on June 22, 2025.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Photos
What choices does Iran must retaliate in opposition to US?
Iran has previously tried to reply proportionately to any assault. However right here is the issue for Iran’s leaders: There isn’t any possible proportionate response to america. Iran has no functionality to hit nuclear crops within the U.S. – both conventionally or by means of unconventional warfare.
However there are tens of hundreds of U.S. troops within the area, stationed in Iraq, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar and Jordan. All are in vary of Iran’s ballistic, drones or cruise missiles.
However that army stock has been depleted – each by utilizing ballistic missiles in waves of assaults in opposition to Israel and by Israel hitting missile launch and storage websites in Iran.
Equally, Tehran’s capability to reply by means of considered one of its proxy or aligned teams within the area has been degraded. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Gaza’s Hamas – each of whom have ties to Iran – are in survival mode following damaging assaults from Israel over the previous 18 months.
The Houthis in Yemen are in some ways the “last man standing” in Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance.” However the Houthis have restricted functionality and know that in the event that they do assault U.S. belongings, they may possible get hit exhausting. Throughout Operation Tough Rider from March to Might this yr, the Trump administration launched over 1,000 strikes in opposition to the Houthis.
In the meantime Shia militias in Iraq and Syria that could possibly be inspired to assault U.S. bases haven’t been lively in months.
After all, Iran may look exterior the area. Prior to now the nation has been concerned in assassinations, kidnappings and terror assaults overseas that had been organized by means of its Quds Drive or through operatives of MOIS, its intelligence service.
However for Iran’s leaders, it’s more and more wanting like a lose-lose proposition. In the event that they don’t reply in a significant approach, they give the impression of being weak and extra susceptible. But when they do hit U.S. targets in any significant approach, they may invite a stronger U.S. involvement within the battle, as Trump has warned.
The parallel I see right here is with the killing of Iranian common and commander of the Quds Drive, Qassem Soleimani, in January 2020 by a U.S. drone strike.
On that event, Iran promised a powerful retaliation. Its retaliatory assault in opposition to the U.S. Ain al-Asad air base in Iraq concerned 27 ballistic missiles and prompted the bodily destruction of among the services on base in addition to traumatic mind injury-type signs to dozens of troops and personnel, however no deaths. However, after this each the U.S. and Iran then backed off from deepening the battle.
The circumstances now are very completely different. Iran is already at conflict with Israel. Furthermore, the U.S. went after Iran’s crown jewels – its nuclear program – and it was on Iranian territory. Nonetheless, Khameini is aware of that if he retaliates, he dangers scary a bigger response.
Trump advised ‘further attacks’ may happen. What may that entail?
The U.S. has advised that it has the intelligence and skill to hit senior management in Iran. And any “go big option” would have possible concerned strikes on key personnel. Equally there could possibly be plans to hit the Iranian economic system by attacking oil and gasoline targets.
A satellite tv for pc picture of the Fordo nuclear facility in Iran previous to the U.S. strike on June 22, 2025.
Maxar/Getty
However such actions threat both damaging the worldwide economic system or drawing the U.S. deeper into the battle – it will evolve from a “one and done” strike to a cycle of assaults and responses. And that might widen political cracks between hawks within the administration and components of Trump’s MAGA devoted who’re in opposition to the U.S. being concerned in abroad wars.
Is there any alternative of a return to diplomacy?
Trump has not closed his “two weeks” window for talks – theoretically it’s nonetheless open.
However will Iran come to desk? Leaders there had already stated they weren’t prepared to entertain any deal whereas beneath assault from Israel. Araghchi, Iran’s overseas minister, stated after the U.S. strikes that the time for diplomacy had now handed.
In any occasion, you must ask, what can Iran come to the desk with? Have they got a lot of a nuclear program anymore? And if not, what would they attempt to negotiate? It could appear, utilizing considered one of Trump’s phrases, they “don’t have the cards” to make a lot of a deal.
