President Donald Trump introduced whereas in Saudi Arabia on Could 14, 2025, that the USA would raise sanctions on Syria. The turnaround was an enormous victory for the federal government of Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa as he makes an attempt to consolidate energy practically six months on from his motion’s beautiful toppling of the longtime regime of Bashar al Assad.
However it wasn’t all all the way down to Syria lobbying by itself behalf. In saying the coverage shift, Trump largely attributed the shift to his Saudi hosts in addition to Turkey. Each nations are longtime Assad foes who shortly championed al-Sharaa and have been pushing the U.S. to normalize ties with Syria’s new authorities.
Turkey, whose assets and land have been closely affected by instability in neighboring Syria, was notably instrumental in pushing Trump to just accept the post-Assad authorities, even over objections from Israel.
As consultants in worldwide relations and Turkish legislation and politics, we imagine the developments in Syria level to the outsized position a small-to-middle energy like Turkey can have in regional and worldwide issues. That’s notably true within the Center East, the place world powers such because the U.S. are perceived to have a declining and at instances unpredictable affect.
A gap in Syria
After 13 years of devastating civil struggle, Syria faces a slew of huge challenges, together with the instant job of state constructing. Not solely is violence nonetheless readily obvious in Syria itself – because the latest killing of Alawites, allegedly by authorities forces, or fighters aligned with them, confirmed – however neighboring Israel has additionally repeatedly attacked positions in Syria in an try to weaken the brand new authorities. To Israel’s authorities, a powerful, militarized Syria would pose a menace, notably in regard to the unstable border on the Golan Heights.
Regardless of the problems that confront Syria’s new authorities, it has nonetheless demonstrated a outstanding aptitude for gaining worldwide acceptance – a notable reality given al-Sharaa’s management ties to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a previously al-Qaeda linked group listed as one of many U.S. overseas terrorist organizations since 2014.
Turkey presses its affect
On this context, Turkey’s hand has been particularly essential.
Since Trump took workplace, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has pressed the American president to raise sanctions. The 2 males had struck up a powerful relationship through the first Trump administration, with the U.S. president declaring himself to be a “big fan” of the Turkish chief.
Turkey’s behind-the-scenes diplomacy may be seen as a part of its broader effort to fill the vacuum left by Assad’s fall. Doing so not solely bolsters Erdogan’s place as a regional participant, but it surely additionally advances his home agenda.
Turkey has moved shortly on quite a few fronts in charting the longer term course of Syria by pursuing financial and safety initiatives within the nation. At the beginning, Turkey has upped its funding in Syria.
Additionally, because it did in Libya and Somalia, Turkey has contributed to the coaching and equipping of recent Syrian safety forces.
Within the northeast Syrian province of Idlib, Turkey is funding schooling, well being care and electrical energy, and the Turkish lira is the de facto foreign money throughout northwestern Syria.
The roots of those engagements lie in Turkey’s curiosity in managing its personal safety scenario.
Since 1984, Turkey has been combating Kurdish separatist teams, most notably the Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration, or PKK, which is aligned with the Kurdish YPG militia in northeast Syria – one of many teams that fought Assad’s forces throughout Syria’s civil struggle.
A Syrian Kurd waves the flag of YPG close to Qamishli’s airport in northeastern Syria on Dec. 8, 2024.
Delil Souleiman/AFP by way of Getty Photos
Assad’s fall led to Russia’s retreat from Syria. In the meantime, Iranian affect, too, has waned because of not solely Assad’s departure, but additionally the army downgrading of Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon. And the U.S. not actively helps the Kurdish YPG militia in northeast Syria.
Into this void of exterior affect, Turkey shortly seized a possibility to reshape the safety panorama.
Ankara, which nonetheless controls massive chunks of territory in Syria’s northeast from the battle towards Assad and Syrian Kurdish teams, agreed to a Syrian plan to include the YPG, the armed wing of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, into the brand new Syrian military.
The Turkish perspective has lengthy been that the battle towards the PKK can reach the long term solely with stability on Syrian soil. Now, the PKK is attempting to achieve peace with the Turkish authorities, however whether or not the SDF in Syria will disarm and disband is way from sure. As such, having a powerful, steady Syrian authorities by which a Kurdish majority is accommodated could also be in Ankara’s greatest pursuits.
In the meantime, al-Sharaa’s success in rebuilding Syria after the civil struggle would additionally assist Turkey on one other entrance: the problem of Syrian refugees.
Turkey at the moment hosts round 3.2 million refugees from Syria – probably the most of any nation. The sheer quantity and size of keep of those displaced folks have put a pressure on Turkey’s financial system and social relations, resulting in clashes between Turks and Syrian refugees.
There’s additionally a broad consensus in Turkey that the Syrian refugee drawback in Turkey may be solved solely by a complete return technique.
Though naturalized Syrians in Turkey make up an essential constituency inside the voter base of Erdogan’s ruling AK Celebration, the one answer at the moment envisaged by the Turkish president and his allies is repatriation. For this, speedy and steady growth of infrastructure and the housing inventory in Syria is taken into account important.
Donald Trump seems to be on as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman greets Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa on Could 14, 2025. The confab additionally had Turkish fingerprints throughout it.
Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace by way of AP
Prospects for small-to-middle powers
Turkey’s strategic alternative in Syria just isn’t with out clear dangers, nonetheless. The incursions by the Israeli army illustrates the problem Turkey faces in advancing its personal pursuits in Syria. It’s notable that Trump’s announcement on sanctions was seemingly made with out the data – and towards the needs – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Moreover, Turkey is seeking to finesse a rising position within the area into strengthening its place over the long-running dispute in Cyprus. The island, which lies a few hundred miles off Syria’s coast, is split into two areas, with Greek Cypriots within the south and a breakaway Turkish Cypriot north – with solely Turkey recognizing the self-declared state within the north. Turkey is attempting to manage maritime jurisdiction within the japanese Mediterranean by an settlement with Syria, however the plan is stalled because the European Union helps Greece’s place in Cyprus.
The Turkish strikes in Syria are nonetheless being broadly felt elsewhere. Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and Qatar help the post-Assad association in Syria and see their very own pursuits being served alongside Turkey’s, though the rivalry of the Sunni world is at stake.
The lifting of sanctions by the U.S. can have long-term political impacts past short-term financial impacts. Syria has little direct commerce with the U.S., solely exporting its agricultural merchandise and antiques. However the look of political legitimacy and recognition is a diplomatic win for Turkey, in addition to for Syria. The political opening brings with it the promise of future funding in Syria.
Turkey’s coping with Syria showcases how small-to-middle powers can chart the waters of statecraft in their very own manner. The times of worldwide affairs being dominated by superpowers seem like over – as many have lengthy predicted. And in Syria, Turkey is offering a blueprint for a way small-to-middle powers can work that to their benefit.
