After a lot back-and-forth over a number of months, President Donald Trump introduced on July 9, 2025, that he deliberate to levy a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to america. Whereas Brazilian authorities, together with leaders of most different international locations, have been anticipating new tariffs given their centrality to Trump’s financial agenda, the announcement seemingly caught Brazilian officers off guard, as commerce negotiations between the 2 nations had been nonetheless ongoing.
Brazil President Lula da Silva was fast in reacting, stating his nation might reply in variety, if tariffs certainly come into impact on Aug. 1.
There was a lot hypothesis in regards to the causes behind Trump’s determination and timing, with some onlookers noting the proximity to the current assembly of the BRICS nations, a grouping of rising economies, together with Brazil, which had already drawn Trump’s ire. Others argued that this was a protecting measure to defend key U.S. industries, reminiscent of metal, which have been going through continued difficulties towards cheaper merchandise from Brazil.
The clearest reply, nonetheless, got here from Trump himself.
In a letter to Lula, the U.S. president indicated that his essential grievance with Brazil is in actual fact the trial that former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro faces in entrance of that nation’s highest court docket. The previous far-right firebrand is charged for refusing to acknowledge the results of the final presidential election in October 2022 and for allegedly having led an tried coup towards the democratic establishments and rule of legislation in January 2023. If convicted, Bolsonaro and a few of his closest associates might face lengthy jail sentences.
A historical past of meddling
The one financial rationale talked about in Trump’s letter, that of a deficit that his nation is alleged to face with Brazil, is belied by the numbers. The U.S. has sustained constant surpluses in commerce with the South American nation for near twenty years now.
Bolsonaro meets with Trump through the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Because the historical past of U.S.-Latin American relations ably demonstrates, that is removed from the primary time Washington has meddled within the area as a way to fulfill its personal political proclivities. Certainly, notably through the Chilly Warfare, a slew of U.S. decision-makers actively intervened to assist pleasant right-wing regimes or to in any other case take away from energy administrations thought of unacceptably unbiased.
This was nonetheless the primary time in current historical past that the official U.S. place is {that a} international nation ought to face harsh financial punishment until its present authorities illegally circumvent the judicary’s constitutional position to cease a serious investigation towards somebody accused of excessive crimes.
Trump-Bolsonaro: Mutual admiration
After all, Trump’s overt assist for Bolsonaro isn’t a surprise, nor new. Their relationship of mutual admiration and ideological affinity hearkens again to the latter’s first presidential marketing campaign in 2018, when he was labeled, to nice reciprocal delight, the “Trump of the Tropics.”
Throughout the subsequent two years when their phrases coincided (2019-2000), each males pledged to have a mutual particular relationship, although to little consequence – no consequential bilateral initiatives had been put in place.
Each leaders additionally share the expertise of getting did not get hold of a second consecutive time period and having supported the derailment of the peaceable switch of energy.
Now that Trump is again in energy, Bolsonaro hopes that the U.S. president will come to his rescue.
Searching for to acquire express assist, Bolsonaro’s third son, Eduardo, a member of Brazil’s decrease home of congress and his household’s most eloquent worldwide voice, took a go away from his legislative duties and moved to the U.S. early this 12 months. He did so to foyer on behalf of his father based mostly on the fallacious argument that Lula is a left-wing dictator, that Bolsonaro faces a politically motivated trial, and that the U.S. authorities ought to act towards Lula’s administration.
Given Trump’s tariff discover and the specific causes he gave for it, it appears secure to imagine that Eduardo’s actions paid dividends.
Which path will Brazil head?
Just like the U.S., Brazil is deeply fractured alongside left and proper political strains. So it was no shock that the native reactions to Trump’s announcement manifested alongside ideological camps.
Regardless of their chief’s authorized travails, Bolsonaro’s supporters stay very influential in politics, the media and amongst necessary financial areas, such because the agribusiness sector. Whether or not Trump’s determination will serve to assist folks rally round and in assist of Lula and towards a case of international interference is unclear. Lula’s preliminary pronouncement that Brazil would reply in variety was seen favorably amongst his supporters, although the opposition and lots of within the media pinned the blame on Lula for not with the ability to forge compromise with the Trump administration.
Key industrialists within the highly effective state of Sao Paulo, the place Bolsonaro’s highly effective ally Tarcisio de Freitas serves as governor, would be the first ones affected by the brand new tariffs. However the ache will probably unfold into different actions, together with within the countryside.
And on condition that the majority of the nation’s agricultural exports go to China slightly than to the U.S., the necessary query is whether or not these highly effective exporters will act pragmatically and work with Lula to enlarge commerce with the Asian big and different international locations, or whether or not they may proceed to behave ideologically and proceed to assist Bolsonaro’s enduring partnership with Trump towards their very own financial pursuits.
Dialogue has been a trademark of Brazil’s diplomacy, and even in the midst of these newest heated diplomatic exchanges, Lula reiterated his willingness to barter. It’s unclear, although, whether or not the Trump adminstration’s actions in Latin America will probably be performed on the idea of rationality and precise numbers, or if they may certainly convey again some previous ideologically pushed behaviors of selecting sides within the inner political disputes of international nations. Ought to one think about at face worth Trump’s newest letter, there’s purpose for concern.
