On June 5, U.S. President Donald Trump held a cellphone name with Chinese language President Xi Jinping. It marked the primary direct dialog between the 2 leaders since Trump started his second time period — and the primary since tensions sharply escalated in 2025’s U.S.-China commerce battle.
After the decision, Trump was fast to border it as successful for his administration, posting on social media that it led to “a very positive conclusion for both Countries.” He later advised reporters that Xi had agreed to renew exports of uncommon earth minerals and magnets to the U.S. — allaying the fears of the auto business, which had beforehand warned that elements suppliers had been going through extreme and rapid dangers to manufacturing.
The presidential cellphone name additionally yielded an invite for Trump and first girl Melania to go to China, an invite that Trump reciprocated.
However other than the easing of some commerce stress and surface-level niceties, the decision conveyed refined messages about an imbalance within the bilateral dispute. As an professional on U.S.-China relations, I consider these subtleties level to Xi having the higher hand in U.S.-China talks and in addition utilizing Trump as a foil to burnish his personal picture as a robust chief at residence and overseas.
A uncommon earths ace
The Trump-Xi name shouldn’t distract from the delicate state of China-U.S. relations — and the willingness of Beijing to play its “rare earth materials card.”
Beijing suspended uncommon earth shipments to outstanding American corporations following the U.S. imposition of tariffs on China.
Though China and U.S. delegations reached a 90-day tariff truce in Geneva on Might 12, negotiations between the 2 international locations stay ongoing. As many observers have famous, deep-rooted and structural variations — reminiscent of disputes over forex manipulation, export subsidies and different nontariff limitations — proceed to solid a protracted shadow over the prospects of U.S-China commerce talks.
U.S. auto meeting traces are reliant on uncommon earth supplies from China.
Jeff Kowalsky/AFP by way of Getty Photos
Beneath the phrases of the Geneva deal, China agreed to droop or elevate its export ban on uncommon earths — one thing the U.S. accuses China of dragging its toes on.
Beijing, in flip, accuses the U.S. of breaking the Geneva settlement first and blames Washington for rolling out a wave of discriminatory measures in opposition to China after the talks, together with new export controls on synthetic intelligence chips, a ban on promoting digital design automation software program to Chinese language corporations, and plans to revoke visas for Chinese language college students.
Trump’s order banning American corporations from utilizing AI chips by China-based Huawei — issued simply in the future after the Geneva settlement on Might 12 — was seen by many in Beijing as immediately countering the spirit of the settlement. Certainly, it might nicely have prompted Beijing to delay the resumption of uncommon earth exports to the U.S. within the first place.
Except for the precise impact of the resumption of uncommon earth exports, Trump’s obvious precedence given to the difficulty alerts to Beijing simply how reliant the U.S. is on China on this regard — one thing that will not have gone unnoticed by Xi.
Xi by no means got here calling
Simply in the future earlier than the June 5 name, Trump wrote on social media: “I like President XI of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!”
His dialog with the Chinese language chief would have additional strengthened Xi’s robust picture — not only for a Chinese language viewers, however for worldwide observers as nicely.
This was actually inspired by how China described the decision. Based on China’s official assertion, Xi “took a phone call from U.S. President Donald J. Trump” – the refined implication being that it was Trump who initiated the decision.
This framing promotes the concept that Xi holds the higher hand. The Chinese language assertion additionally highlighted that the Geneva talks had been “at the suggestion of the U.S. side,” implying that China didn’t again down within the face of Trump’s commerce stress — and that it was Trump who in the end blinked first.
China’s message is especially vital on condition that, because the U.S.-China commerce battle intensified in April, Washington believed it might achieve “escalation dominance” by imposing tariffs on Chinese language items — maybe underestimating China’s potential to retaliate successfully and assuming Beijing can be keen to barter.
Previous to the June 5 communication, Trump repeatedly expressed hope that Xi would name him, but Xi by no means took the initiative. On April 22, Trump advised Time journal that Xi had phoned him — an assertion that Beijing shortly denied.
All through the commerce standoff, Xi kept away from initiating contact with Trump, and ultimately, it was Trump who reached out.
This undoubtedly enhanced Xi’s picture again residence — and probably undermined Trump’s negotiating posture.
The official Chinese language assertion following the talks famous: “The Chinese side is sincere about this, and at the same time has its principles. The Chinese always honor and deliver what has been promised. Both sides should make good on the agreement reached in Geneva.”
These phrases seem aimed toward signaling to the worldwide group that it’s the U.S. — not China — that did not uphold its finish of the Geneva settlement.
The second-to-last paragraph of the Chinese language assertion on the cellphone name famous: “President Trump said that he has great respect for President Xi, and the U.S.-China relationship is very important. The U.S. wants the Chinese economy to do very well. The U.S. and China working together can get a lot of great things done. The U.S. will honor the one-China policy. The meeting in Geneva was very successful, and produced a good deal. The U.S. will work with China to execute the deal. The U.S. loves to have Chinese students coming to study in America.”
Whereas a lot of this language could also be commonplace diplomatic rhetoric, it clearly goals to field in Trump because the supplicant within the present dispute and implies that he’s shifting nearer to China’s positions, together with key nontrade points like U.S. visas for Chinese language college students.
A sport of phone?
Except for the optics or broader query of who’s “winning” the dispute, the Trump-Xi name has actually eased some tensions on each side — not less than quickly.
For the U.S., considerations over uncommon earth provides had been alleviated. Because the name, it has been reported that China has issued non permanent export licenses to corporations that offer uncommon earth supplies to America’s three largest automakers.
For China, Trump’s remarks seemingly helped scale back nervousness over points reminiscent of Taiwan and scholar visa restrictions.
However given the deep and elementary variations between the 2 international locations on commerce and financial issues — and recalling how commerce negotiations repeatedly stalled and restarted throughout Trump’s first time period — there may be good motive to consider that future talks might face related setbacks.
However what is evident now, particularly in contrast with the commerce battle throughout Trump’s first administration, is that Beijing seems higher ready and extra expert at leveraging its uncommon earth exports as a bargaining chip.
In some ways, Trump faces the better stress in his dealing with of Xi. Ought to talks collapse, any ensuing provide chain disruptions might result in rising inflation, market volatility and financial woe for the U.S. — with the related dangers of political fallout forward of the midterm elections. Xi will know this and, in uncommon earth supplies, has an ace up his sleeve to tug out when wanted.
Certainly, Trump could discover himself needing to achieve out to Xi once more sooner or later in an effort to revive troubled commerce negotiations. However doing so would solely reinforce Xi’s picture because the harder and extra dominant determine.
