The South China Sea has lengthy been a effervescent geopolitical sizzling spot. Lately, a sequence of strikes by the varied nations claiming a stake within the waters has stirred up but extra bother.
Malaysia has of late reaffirmed its dedication to grease and gasoline exploration in waters claimed by China whereas quietly build up its navy on the islands off Borneo.
In the meantime, Chinese language coast guard vessels have deployed water cannons in opposition to Filipino fishing boats. And the unintentional grounding of a Chinese language boat in shallow waters across the Philippines’ Thitu Island on June 8, 2025, was sufficient to place Filipino forces on alert.
Vietnam, too, has been lively within the disputed waters. A Beijing-based assume tank on June 7 flagged that Vietnamese engineers had been busy reclaiming land and putting in military-related ports and airstrips across the Spratly Islands.
What the three Southeast Asian nations of Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia have in frequent is that they, together with others within the area, try to navigate a extra assertive China at a time when the U.S. coverage intentions beneath the second Trump Administration are fluid and onerous to learn. And in lieu of a coordinated response from the regional physique Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, every member nation has been busy charting its course in these uneven waters.
US-China relations all at sea
Why is China making an attempt to say management within the South China Sea? In a 2023 speech, President Xi Jinping famous that “Western countries led by the United States have implemented all round containment, encirclement and suppression of China.”
This worry has been lengthy held in Beijing and was strengthened by a U.S. Indo-Pacific coverage introduced in 2011 of rebalancing navy forces away from Europe and towards Asia to confront China.
In response, China has lately launched into an formidable coverage of trying to outmuscle U.S. naval energy within the South China Sea.
China is now the world’s main builder of naval vessels and is estimated to have 440 battleships by 2030, in contrast with the US’ 300.
And it comes at a time when U.S. naval energy is unfold all over the world. China’s, in the meantime, is concentrated across the South China Sea the place, since 2013, Chinese language vessels have pumped sand onto reefs, turning them into islands after which weaponizing them.
Satellite tv for pc imagery exhibits the Fiery Cross Reef within the South China Sea, a part of the Spratly Islands group, being constructed by Chinese language dredges.
Maxar by way of Getty Photographs
Then there may be the exercise of China’s maritime militia of roughly 300 nominally fishing boats geared up with water cannons and strengthened hulls for ramming. This so-called grey zone fleet is more and more lively in confronting Southeast Asia nations at sea.
The U.S. response to China’s militarization within the sea has been via so-called “freedom of navigation” workout routines that always deploy provider teams in a present of pressure. However these episodic shows are extra performative than efficient, doing little to discourage China’s claims.
The U.S. has additionally strengthened navy alliances with Australia, India, Japan and the Philippines, and has elevated coast guard cooperation with the Philippines and Japan.
A fleet from the U.S. Navy patrolling the Pacific Ocean.
Sean M. Castellano US Navy by way of Getty Photographs
The ocean is a useful useful resource
But the battle over management of the South China Seas is extra than simply geopolitical posturing between the 2 superpowers.
For adjoining international locations, the ocean is a useful organic useful resource with wealthy fishing grounds that present a staple of fish protein for near 2 billion individuals. There are estimates of 190 trillion cubic toes of pure gasoline and 11 billion barrels of oil.
The U.N. Conference on the Regulation of the Sea, or UNCLOS, ensures a nation an unique financial zone (EEZ) of 200 nautical miles from round its shoreline.
China is a signatory of the UNCLOS. But it views possession of the South China Sea via the lens of its nine-dash line, a reference to the boundary line that Beijing has invoked since 1948. Whereas the declare has no authorized or historic foundation, the delineation makes main incursions into waters round Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia and, to a lesser extent, Brunei and Indonesia as properly.
Regardless of China’s expansive declare to the South China Sea being dismissed in 2016 by the worldwide Everlasting Courtroom of Arbitration, Beijing continues to say its declare.
Hedging positions
As I discover in my current e book “Hedging and Conflict in the South China Sea,” a part of the issue Southeast Asian nations face is that they’ve did not forge a unified place.
ASEAN, the regional bloc representing 10 nations in Southeast Asia, has lengthy been ruled by the precept that main choices want unanimous settlement. China is a significant buying and selling associate to ASEAN nations, so any regional nation aligning too near the U.S. comes with the actual threat of financial penalties. And two ASEAN members, Cambodia and Laos, are particularly near China, making it troublesome to generate a unified ASEAN coverage that confronts China’s maritime declare.
As a substitute, ASEAN has promoted a regional code of conduct that successfully legitimizes China’s maritime claims, fails to say the 2016 ruling and ignores the difficulty of conflicting claims.
Additional complicating a united entrance in opposition to China is the competing claims amongst ASEAN nations themselves to disputed islands within the South China Sea.
In lieu of a coordinated response, Southeast Asian nations have as a substitute turned to hedging — that’s, sustaining good relationships with each China and the U.S. with out totally committing to 1 or different.
A balancing act for Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines
Malaysia’s strategy sees its authorities partition off the South China Sea dispute from its total bilateral ties with China whereas persevering with to advertise an ASEAN code of conduct.
Till not too long ago, Malaysia’s oil and gasoline actions have been properly inside Malaysia’s EEZ and never far sufficient out to fall into China’s nine-dash declare.
However as these close-to-shore fields grow to be exhausted, subsequent exploration might want to prolong outward and into China’s nine-dash declare, placing Malaysia’s dealings with China beneath stress.
China’s nine-dash line claims a big quantity of Vietnam’s EEZ, and the contested maritime space is a supply of friction between the 2 international locations; China’s maritime militia repeatedly harasses Vietnamese fishermen and disrupts drilling operations in Vietnam’s EEZ .
However Vietnam has to tread fastidiously. China performs a big position within the Vietnamese economic system as a significant vacation spot of exports and an vital supplier of international funding. China additionally has the flexibility to dam the Mekong River upstream of Vietnam — one thing that might disrupt agricultural manufacturing.
Because of this, Vietnam’s hedging includes a cautious calibration to keep away from angering China. Nonetheless, a part of Vietnam’s heavy hedging includes the promotion of the South China Sea dispute as a core difficulty for home public opinion, which limits the Vietnamese authorities’s capability to supply concessions to China.
A Philippine coast guard ship and fishing boats are seen in El Nido, Palawan, Philippines, on Could 26, 2025.
Daniel Ceng/Anadolu by way of Getty ImagesDaniel Ceng/Anadolu by way of Getty Photographs
China’s nine-dash declare additionally features a large swath of the Philippines’ EEZ.
The Philippines has zigzagged in its dealings with China. The presidencies of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (2001–2010) and Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022) pursued a pro-China tack that downplayed Filipino claims within the South China Sea. Presidents Benigno Aquino (2010-2016) and Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (2022-present), in distinction, have given U.S. forces higher entry to its maritime bases and mobilized nationwide and worldwide opinion in favor of its claims.
Since coming to energy, Marcos has additionally pursued even nearer naval ties with the U.S.. However this has come at a value: China now views the Philippines as a U.S. ally. As such, Beijing sees little to be gained by pulling again from its assertive exercise in and round its waters.
The long run
Within the shadow of two main powers battling for energy within the South China Sea, Southeast Asian nations are making the very best of their place alongside a geopolitical fracture line by advancing their claims and pursuits whereas not overly antagonizing a extra assertive China or dropping the assist of the U.S.
This will likely work to tamp down tensions within the South China Sea. However it’s a fluid strategy not with out threat, and it may but show to be one other supply of instability in a geopolitically contested and harmful area.
