The timing and targets of Israel’s assaults on Iran inform us that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s short-term objective is to break Iran’s nuclear amenities as a way to severely diminish its weapons program.
However Netanyahu has made clear one other objective: he mentioned the battle with Iran “could certainly” result in regime change within the Islamic republic.
These feedback got here after an Israeli plan to assassinate the supreme chief of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was reportedly rebuffed by United States President Donald Trump.
It’s no secret Israel has wished to see the present authorities of Iran fall for a while, as have many authorities officers within the US.
However what would issues appear to be if the federal government did topple?
Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waves to a crowd of college college students in Tehran final yr.
Workplace of the Iranian Supreme Chief/AP
How is energy wielded in at the moment’s Iran?
Based in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran has democratic, theocratic and authoritarian parts to its governing construction.
The founding determine of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, envisioned a state run by Islamic clerics and jurists who ensured all insurance policies adhered to Islamic legislation.
As Iran was a constitutional monarchy earlier than the revolution, theocratic parts have been successfully grafted on high of the present republican ones, such because the parliament, government and judiciary.
On this 1978 file image, protesters in Tehran maintain up a poster of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini throughout an illustration in opposition to the shah, who dominated Iran till the revolution.
Michel Lipchitz/AP
Iran has a unicameral legislature (one home of parliament), referred to as the Majles, and a president (at present Masoud Pezeshkian). There are common elections for each.
However whereas there are democratic parts inside this method, in follow it’s a “closed loop” that retains the clerical elite in energy and prevents challenges to the supreme chief. There’s a clear hierarchy, with the supreme chief on the high.
Khamenei has been in energy for greater than 35 years, taking workplace following Khomeini’s loss of life in 1989. The previous president of Iran, he was chosen to turn out to be supreme chief by the Meeting of Specialists, an 88-member physique of Islamic jurists.
Whereas members of the meeting are elected by the general public, candidates have to be vetted by the {powerful} 12-member Guardian Council (often known as the Constitutional Council). Half of this physique is chosen by the supreme chief, whereas the opposite half is permitted by the Majles.
The council additionally has the ability to vet all candidates for president and the parliament.
In final yr’s elections, the Guardian Council disqualified many candidates from working for president, in addition to the Majles and Meeting of Specialists, together with the average former president Hassan Rouhani.
As such, the supreme chief is more and more going through a disaster of legitimacy with the general public. Elections routinely have low turnout. Even with a reformist presidential candidate in final yr’s subject – the eventual winner, Masoud Pezeshkian – turnout was beneath 40% within the first spherical.
Freedom Home provides Iran a world freedom rating of simply 11 out of 100.
The supreme chief additionally straight appoints the leaders in key governance buildings, such because the judiciary, the armed forces and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The omnipotent IRGC
So, Iran is much from a democracy. However the concept regime change would result in a full democracy that’s aligned with Israel and the US could be very unlikely.
Iranian politics is extraordinarily factional. Ideological factions, such because the reformists, moderates and conservatives, typically disagree vehemently on key coverage areas. In addition they jockey for affect with the supreme chief and the remainder of the clerical elite. None of those factions is especially pleasant with the US, and particularly not Israel.
There are additionally institutional factions. Essentially the most {powerful} group within the nation is the clerical elite, led by the supreme chief. The following strongest faction could be the IRGC.
Initially shaped as a sort of private guard for the supreme chief, the IRGC’s preventing power now rivals that of the common military.
The IRGC is extraordinarily hardline politically. At occasions, the IRGC’s affect domestically has outstripped that of presidents, exerting important strain on their insurance policies. The guard solely vocally helps presidents in lockstep with Islamic revolutionary doctrine.
Navy gear on show on the new ‘missile city’ of the IRGC’s naval unit at an undisclosed location in Iran in 2021.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Workplace Sepahnews handout/EPA
Along with its management over navy {hardware} and its political affect, the guard can be entwined with the Iranian financial system.
The IRGC is closely enriched by the established order, with some describing it as a “kleptocratic” establishment. IRGC officers are sometimes awarded state contracts, and are allegedly concerned in managing the “black economy” used to evade sanctions.
Given all of this, the IRGC could be the more than likely political establishment to take management of Iran if the clerical elite have been faraway from energy.
In peacetime, the final consensus is the IRGC wouldn’t have the assets to orchestrate a coup if the supreme chief died. However in a time of battle in opposition to a transparent enemy, issues may very well be completely different.
Doable eventualities post-Khamenei
So, what may occur if Israel have been to assassinate the supreme chief?
One situation could be a martial legislation state led by the IRGC, shaped a minimum of within the quick time period for the needs of defending the revolution.
Within the unlikely occasion the whole clerical management is decimated, the IRGC may try and reform the Meeting of Specialists and select a brand new supreme chief itself, even perhaps supporting Khamenei’s son’s candidacy.
Evidently, this final result wouldn’t result in a state extra pleasant to Israel or the US. In reality, it may probably empower a faction that has lengthy argued for a extra militant response to each.
One other situation is a well-liked rebellion. Netanyahu definitely appears to suppose that is potential, saying in an interview in latest days:
The choice to behave, to stand up this time, is the choice of the Iranian folks.
Certainly, many Iranians have lengthy been disillusioned with their authorities – even with extra average and reformist parts inside it. Mass protests have damaged out a number of occasions in latest a long time – most not too long ago in 2022 – regardless of heavy retaliation from legislation enforcement.
We’ve seen sufficient revolutions to know that is potential – in spite of everything, trendy Iran was shaped out of 1. However as soon as once more, new political management being extra pleasant to Israel and the West will not be a foregone conclusion.
It’s potential for Iranians to carry contempt of their hearts for each their leaders and the overseas powers that might upend their lives.
