A minimum of 14 nuclear scientists are believed to be amongst these killed in Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, launched on June 13, 2025, ostensibly to destroy or degrade Iran’s nuclear program and army capabilities.
Intentionally concentrating on scientists on this manner goals to disrupt Iran’s information base and continuity in nuclear experience. Amongst these assassinated had been Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, a theoretical physicist and head of Iran’s Islamic Azad College, and Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, a nuclear engineer who led Iran’s Atomic Vitality Group.
Collectively, these specialists in physics and engineering had been potential successors to Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, broadly considered the architect of the Iranian nuclear program, who was assassinated in a November 2020 assault many blame on Israel.
As two political scientists writing a e-book about state concentrating on of scientists as a counterproliferation instrument, we perceive properly that nuclear scientists have been focused because the nuclear age started. We’ve gathered knowledge on almost 100 situations of what we name “scientist targeting” from 1944 by means of 2025.
The latest assassination marketing campaign towards Iranian scientists is totally different from most of the earlier episodes in just a few key methods. Israel’s latest assault focused a number of nuclear specialists and came about concurrently with army pressure to destroy Iran’s nuclear services, air defenses and power infrastructure. Additionally, in contrast to earlier covert operations, Israel instantly claimed duty for the assassinations.
However our analysis signifies that concentrating on scientists will not be efficient for counterproliferation. Whereas eradicating particular person experience might delay nuclear acquisition, concentrating on alone is unlikely to destroy a program outright and will even enhance a rustic’s need for nuclear weapons. Additional, concentrating on scientists might set off blowback given issues relating to legality and morality.
A coverage with an extended historical past
Concentrating on nuclear scientists started throughout World Battle II when Allied and Soviet forces raced to seize Nazi scientists, degrade Adolf Hitler’s capacity to construct a nuclear bomb and use their experience to advance the U.S. and Soviet nuclear applications.
In our knowledge set, we labeled “targeting” as instances during which scientists had been captured, threatened, injured or killed as nations tried to forestall adversaries from buying weapons of mass destruction. Over time, a minimum of 4 international locations have focused scientists engaged on 9 nationwide nuclear applications.
The USA and Israel have allegedly carried out probably the most assaults on nuclear scientists. However the UK and Soviet Union have additionally been behind such assaults.
In the meantime, scientists working for the Egyptian, Iranian and Iraqi nuclear applications have been probably the most frequent targets since 1950. Since 2007 and previous to the present Israeli operation, 10 scientists concerned within the Iranian nuclear program had been killed in assaults. Different international locations’ nationals have additionally been focused: In 1980, Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, allegedly bombed Italian engineer Mario Fiorelli’s residence and his agency, SNIA Techint, as a warning to Europeans concerned within the Iraqi nuclear venture.
Given this historical past, the truth that Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program just isn’t itself stunning. Certainly, it has been a strategic purpose of successive Israeli prime ministers to forestall Iran from buying nuclear weapons, and specialists had been warning of the elevated chance of an Israeli army operation since mid-2024, on account of regional dynamics and Iranian nuclear growth.
The wrecked vehicles during which 4 of Iran’s nuclear scientists had been assassinated in recent times are displayed on the grounds of a museum in Tehran in 2014.
Scott Peterson/Getty Pictures
By then, the stability of energy within the Center East had modified dramatically. Israel systematically degraded the management and infrastructure of Iranian proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. It later destroyed Iranian air defenses round Tehran and close to key nuclear installations. The following fall of Syria’s Assad regime price Tehran one other long-standing ally. Collectively, these developments have considerably weakened Iran, leaving it weak to exterior assault and stripped of its once-feared proxy community, which had been anticipated to retaliate on its behalf within the occasion of hostilities.
With its proxy “axis of resistance” defanged and traditional army capability degraded, Iranian management might have thought that increasing its enrichment functionality was its greatest wager going ahead.
And within the months main as much as Israel’s latest assault, Iran expanded its nuclear manufacturing capability, transferring past 60% uranium enrichment, a technical step simply wanting weapons-grade materials. Throughout Donald Trump’s first time period, the president withdrew the U.S. from a multilateral nonproliferation settlement aimed toward curbing Iran’s nuclear program. After being reelected, Trump appeared to vary tack by pursuing new diplomacy with Iran, however these talks have thus far didn’t ship an settlement – and could also be placed on maintain for the foreseeable future amid the conflict.
Most not too long ago, the Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company board of governors declared Iran in non-compliance with its nuclear-nonproliferation obligations. In response, Iran introduced it was additional increasing its enrichment capability by including superior centrifuge expertise and a 3rd enrichment website.
Even when the worldwide group anticipated the broader assault on Iran, traits of the concentrating on itself are stunning. Traditionally, states have covertly focused particular person scientists. However the latest multiple-scientist assault occurred brazenly, with Israel taking duty, publicly indicating the assaults’ objective. Additional, whereas it’s not new for a rustic to make use of a number of counter-proliferation instruments towards an adversary over time, that Israel is utilizing each preventive army pressure towards infrastructure and concentrating on scientists without delay is atypical.
Moreover, such assaults towards scientists are traditionally decrease tech and low price, with demise or harm stemming from gunmen, automotive bombs or accidents. In reality, Abbasi – who was killed in the newest assaults – survived a 2010 automotive bombing in Tehran. There are outliers, nonetheless, together with the Fakhrizadeh assassination, which featured a remotely operated machine gun smuggled into Iranian territory.
Israel’s logic in going after scientists
Why goal nuclear scientists?
In overseas coverage, there are quite a few instruments accessible if one state goals to forestall one other state from buying nuclear weapons. Alongside concentrating on scientists, there are sanctions, diplomacy, cyberattacks and army pressure.
Concentrating on scientists might take away important scientific experience and impose prices that enhance the issue of constructing nuclear weapons. Proponents argue that concentrating on these specialists might undermine a state’s efforts, deter it from persevering with nuclear developments and sign to others the perils of supporting nuclear proliferation.
International locations that focus on scientists subsequently imagine that doing so is an efficient method to degrade an adversary’s nuclear program. Certainly, the Israel Protection Forces described the newest assaults as “a significant blow to the regime’s ability to acquire weapons of mass destruction.”
Posters that includes photos of Iranian nuclear scientists are displayed in Tehran, Iran, on June 14, 2025.
Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu through Getty Pictures
Regardless of Israel’s deal with scientists as sources of important information, there could also be 1000’s extra working inside Iran, calling into query the efficacy of concentrating on them. Additional, there are authorized, moral and ethical issues over concentrating on scientists.
Furthermore, it’s a dangerous choice which will fail to disrupt an enemy nuclear program whereas sparking public outrage and requires retaliation. That is particularly the case if scientists, usually considered civilians, are elevated as martyrs.
Concentrating on campaigns might, in consequence, reinforce home help for a authorities, which may then redouble efforts towards nuclear growth.
No matter whether or not concentrating on scientists is an efficient counter-proliferation instrument, it has been round because the begin of the nuclear age – and can seemingly persist as a part of the overseas coverage toolkit for states aiming to forestall proliferation. Within the case of the present Israeli battle with Iran and its concentrating on of nuclear scientists, we count on the tactic to proceed throughout the conflict and past.
