Gov. Gavin Newsom’s drive towards the political middle has hit a jarring velocity bump: He’s spending approach over price range on well being look after undocumented immigrants.
Let’s put this in perspective:
Newsom presumably has been repositioning himself to run for president in 2028 — much less as a wild-eyed California liberal and extra like a wise average who can entice votes in swing states.
He desires, in any case, to be regarded and revered nationally as a top-tier presidential prospect.
However the two greatest coverage points Democrats whiffed on final yr have been inflation — induced partly by federal authorities overspending — and an unsecured southern border that allowed numerous immigrants to stream into the nation illegally. MAGA Republicans mentioned that one attraction for migrants was freebie advantages in liberal states equivalent to California.
“Kamala Rolls Out Red Carpet for Illegals” was the banner on one Donald Trump marketing campaign piece attacking Democrat Kamala Harris, whose susceptible California political roots ran deep.
Newsom, the truth is, bragged that California was a nationwide trailblazer by changing into the primary state to supply authorities well being care to all low-income folks, no matter their immigrant standing.
So one can solely speculate how this may play with purple state voters throughout America — Newsom breaking the financial institution on well being look after folks residing right here illegally. My hypothesis: It’d play like a ballplayer being caught off base.
It might match properly into many People’ stereotype of a contemporary California governor: the chief of a radical, lefty, out-of-control state.
In fact, Newsom may very well be rescued politically by President Donald Trump and the Republican Congress in the event that they foolishly whack Medicaid well being look after the poor and cut back Medicare for seniors with a purpose to present tax cuts for the wealthiest People. That might overshadow Newsom’s overspending on Medi-Cal for undocumented immigrants.
A failure to plan
Medi-Cal is our model of federal Medicaid. It gives well being look after roughly 15 million Californians, 38% of the state’s inhabitants and half the youngsters.
California started phasing in Medi-Cal for undocumented immigrants 10 years in the past when then-Gov. Jerry Brown signed laws masking youngsters. Underneath Newsom, seniors have been the subsequent to realize protection. And undocumented folks of all ages — an estimated 1.8 million — have been included final yr.
It shouldn’t be gorgeous that the state authorities didn’t plan adequately for the Medi-Cal growth. Price range writers final June pegged the fee at $6.4 billion. By January, total Medi-Cal prices had enormously exceeded the preliminary projection, prompting Newsom to borrow $3.4 billion to pay payments by way of this month.
Just lately, the governor requested the Legislature for a further $2.8 billion to cowl Medi-Cal spending by way of June. Of the whole $6.2 billion in further prices, the administration has refused to make public how a lot is for undocumented well being care.
I believe the governor — and possibly the Legislature — cooked the numbers final yr to point out a “balanced” price range on paper. Shock, shock. That’s an age-old customized within the state Capitol.
Subsequent yr’s price range
So, Newsom and the Legislature face a tricky job crafting a price range for the subsequent fiscal yr that begins July 1.
They may lower Medi-Cal companies for all beneficiaries. Or they might cut back care only for undocumented immigrants — perhaps lop them off the plan solely. That doesn’t appear to be something Democrats would embrace.
They may tighten eligibility, decreasing the variety of beneficiaries. They may add co-pays. Or pare again supplier reimbursement charges — already so low that many physicians refuse to simply accept Medi-Cal sufferers. Neglect it.
They may lower different state packages to assist pay for Medi-Cal — maybe a logical transfer, however it might evoke screams.
Or they might elevate taxes. A nonstarter.
There are all the time budgeting gimmicks — borrowing, backfilling from different funds, kicking the can down the street.
What they’ll probably do: Recook the numbers.
Medi-Cal funding is especially problematic due to the best way it really works. The federal authorities matches state spending for authorized residents, however not for undocumented folks besides in emergencies. The state is generally by itself offering look after undocumented sufferers.
Paying for everybody else — roughly 13 million folks — Newsom and the Legislature now are on the mercy of Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress.
Transferring towards the middle, Newsom prevented a lot of political grief final yr by vetoing three payments the Legislature handed to assist undocumented immigrants.
Probably the most contentious would have allowed them to use for interest-free house loans of as much as $150,000 in the event that they have been first-time homebuyers. There wasn’t even sufficient cash within the present pot to help residents, Newsom famous in his veto message.
A second vetoed invoice would have paved the best way for undocumented employees to obtain unemployment advantages. A 3rd would have required public universities and group schools to rent undocumented college students for campus jobs.
Proper now, Trump and Congress may whack Medicaid and provides Newsom a stable rationale for chopping approach again on well being look after undocumented Californians. That may be awful, hurtful coverage.
However no matter occurs, hopefully the governor will use raw numbers this time.
George Skelton is a Los Angeles Occasions columnist. ©2025 Los Angeles Occasions. Distributed by Tribune Content material Company.
