JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is warning {that a} recession stays an actual risk as monetary markets proceed to soak up the ripple results of the Trump administration’s sweeping tariff insurance policies.
“Hopefully we’ll avoid it, but I wouldn’t take it off the table at this point,” Dimon informed Bloomberg Tv on Thursday throughout JPMorgan’s World Markets Convention in Paris.
“If there is a recession, I don’t know how big it would be or how long it would last.”
Dimon’s feedback come amid ongoing uncertainty sparked by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement of tariffs on dozens of nations, adopted days later by a 90-day pause to pursue commerce agreements.
The back-and-forth has jolted markets, and Dimon mentioned some JPMorgan shoppers are already placing funding plans on maintain because of the volatility.
“The right thing to do is to back off of some of that stuff,” Dimon mentioned of the commerce battle, including that he hopes the latest cooling of tensions between the US and China results in productive negotiations.
“To have an engaging conversation.”
Dimon has been vocal in regards to the want for a secure commerce framework and has urged the Trump administration to empower Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to steer talks with overseas governments.
In his latest shareholder letter, he pressed for a swift decision, warning that extended uncertainty would dampen financial progress.
Regardless of the turmoil, Dimon famous that JPMorgan has benefited from latest market swings.
“You’ve seen examples where there’s good volatility and there’s bad volatility,” he mentioned. “This one happened to be good. The next go around it may not be so good.”
JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest lender with almost $4 trillion in property beneath administration, generated report income within the first quarter, and analysts anticipate one other sturdy exhibiting within the second quarter — even earlier than the complete influence of the April tariffs takes maintain.
However Dimon additionally cautioned that world sentiment towards the US could also be fraying.
“We irritate a lot of people,” he mentioned, pointing to anecdotal backlash. “I run into them, they say you know, they’re not buying our Kentucky bourbon.”
Nonetheless, he stays bullish on America’s long-term prospects.
“Is America a bad investment destination? No,” Dimon mentioned. “If you were to take all your money and put it in one country it would still be America.”
Elsewhere within the interview, Dimon sounded a word of optimism on European stability, saying the EU and UK “have a chance to actually develop a great relationship, partially making up for the disaster that Brexit became.”
Whereas Dimon emphasised resilience, billionaire investor and Mets proprietor Steve Cohen provided a barely extra cautious outlook, estimating the possibility of a US recession at 45%.
“We aren’t in a recession yet, but we have significant slowing growth,” Cohen, founding father of the hedge fund Point72 Asset Administration, mentioned through the Sohn Funding Convention in New York on Wednesday.
Cohen predicted that US GDP might sluggish to 1.5% or decrease subsequent yr and mentioned the Federal Reserve is unlikely to chop rates of interest within the close to time period as a result of “they are going to be worried about inflation from tariffs.”
He additionally remarked on the inventory market’s swift April reversal.
“I want to see how the market is going to react [to upcoming economic data], and that will tell me a lot about whether we are priced correctly,” he mentioned.
Even when the market slides, Cohen mentioned a ten% to fifteen% decline “isn’t a calamity” and predicted equities might commerce sideways for an prolonged interval.
“Markets don’t have to go up every year,” he added.
Point72 posted a 2.3% acquire in April, pushing its year-to-date return to three%, Bloomberg beforehand reported.
