What’s the connection between roads and battle in west Africa? This will appear to be an odd query. However a research we carried out reveals an in depth relationship between the 2.
We’re researchers of transnational political violence. We analysed 58,000 violent occasions in west Africa between 2000 to 2024. Our focus was on figuring out patterns of violence in relation to move infrastructure.
Anecdotal proof means that roads, bridges, pipelines and different transport methods are more and more attacked throughout west Africa, however little is understood concerning the components that specify when, the place and by whom.
Violence in west Africa includes a posh mixture of political, financial and social components. Weak governance, corruption, urban-rural inequalities and marginalised populations have been exploited by quite a few armed teams, together with transnational prison networks and non secular extremists.
West Africa has been one of many world’s most violent areas for the reason that mid 2010s. In 2024 alone, the Armed Battle Location and Occasion Knowledge initiative recorded over 10,600 occasions of political violence within the area. These ranged from battles between armed teams, explosions and different types of distant violence, to assaults on unarmed civilians. An estimated 25,600 folks had been killed. This has been the established order within the area for practically a decade.
The outcomes of our research present that 65% of all of the assaults, explosions, and violence in opposition to civilians recorded between 2000 and 2024 had been situated inside one kilometre of a street.
Solely 4% of all occasions had been situated additional than 10km from a street. This sample was constant throughout all street varieties however most pronounced close to highways and first roads.
We expect the explanation for this sample is that there’s fierce competitors between state and non-state actors for entry to and use of roads.
Governments want well-developed street networks for a number of causes, together with the flexibility to control, enabling financial exercise, and safety. Roads allow navy mobility and cut back potential secure havens for insurgents in distant areas.
Rebel teams additionally see transport networks as prime targets. They create alternatives to blockade cities, ambush convoys, kidnap travellers, make use of landmines, and destroy key infrastructure.
Our analysis is a part of a protracted line of labor that explored the position of infrastructure in relation to safety in west Africa. Our newest analysis reinforces earlier findings linking the 2. Transport networks have turn into battlegrounds for extremist teams looking for to destabilise states, isolate communities and increase their affect.
The community
The west African street community is huge, estimated at over 709,000km of roads by the World Roads Stock Mission. It compares unfavourably with different African areas. For instance, paved roads stay comparatively scarce in west Africa (17% of the regional community) compared with north Africa (83%).
Poorly maintained roads impose prices on west African nations. They enhance transport time of perishable items, shorten the operational lifetime of vans, trigger extra accidents, and cut back social interactions between communities.
Nonetheless, vital variations in street high quality are discovered throughout the area. The share of paved roads ranges from a excessive of 37% in Senegal to only over 7% in Mali. Nigeria has the biggest street community in west Africa with an estimated 195,000km, however a lot of it has deteriorated due to poor upkeep.
Street-related violence is on the rise
We discovered that road-related assaults have been on the rise since jihadist teams emerged within the mid-2010s. Solely 31 ambushes in opposition to convoys had been reported in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger from 2000-2015, in opposition to 497 from 2016-2023.
Assaults incessantly happen alongside the identical street segments, equivalent to round Boni within the Gourma Mounts, the place Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) carried out 9 assaults in opposition to Malian forces and Wagner mercenaries between 2019 and 2024.
Violence was essentially the most clustered close to roads in 2011, with 87% of all violent occasions situated inside 1km of a street. Our evaluation reveals that, although nonetheless excessive, there’s been a decline post-2000: 59% in 2022 and 60% in 2024. This evolution displays the ruralisation of battle in west Africa. As jihadist insurgents goal rural areas and small cities an increasing number of, an rising share of violent occasions additionally happens distant from roads.
We’ve studied the basis causes of west Africa’s violence for practically a decade, documenting the ever-intensifying prices paid by its folks. Within the course of, we’ve uncovered neglected features of the turmoil, together with the centrality of the street networks to an understanding of the place the violence is occurring.
Probably the most harmful roads of west Africa
Our findings present that violence in opposition to transport infrastructure could be very erratically distributed in west Africa and that particular street segments have been repeatedly focused. This was significantly the case within the Central Sahel, Lake Chad basin, and western Cameroon.
For instance, the 350km ring street linking Bamenda to Kumbo and Wum in Cameroon is essentially the most violent street in west Africa, with 757 occasions since 2018, because of the battle between the federal government and the Ambazonian separatists.
The longest segments of harmful roads are in Nigeria, significantly these connecting Maiduguri in Borno State to Damaturu, Potiskum, Biu and Bama.
Within the central Sahel, the street between Mopti/Sévaré and Gao is by far essentially the most violent transport axis, with 433 occasions for the reason that starting of the civil warfare in Mali in 2012. South of Gao, Nationwide Street 17 resulting in the Nigerien border, and Nationwide Street 20 heading east towards Ménaka have skilled 177 and 139 occasions respectively for the reason that Islamic State – Sahel Province (ISSP) intensified its actions within the area in 2017.
In Burkina Faso, all of the roads resulting in Djibo close to the border with Mali have skilled excessive ranges of violence for the reason that early 2020s.
Constructing transport infrastructure to advertise peace
Roads are an essential a part of state counterinsurgency methods and a strategic goal for native militants. Sure, as our work highlights, transport infrastructure is basically ignored in debates that emphasise extra state interventions as a method of combating insecurity. Sixty years after the independence of many west African nations, street accessibility stays elusive within the area.
Peripheral cities equivalent to Bardaï, Bilma, Kidal and Timbuktu, the place insurgent actions have traditionally developed, are nonetheless not related to the nationwide community by tarmac roads.
The duality of the transport infrastructure, as each a facilitator and goal of violence, has put authorities forces at a drawback. Common forces are closely constrained by the sparsity and poor situations of the street community, which makes them weak to assaults with out essentially permitting them to venture their navy energy over lengthy distances.
Somewhat than constructing transport infrastructure, states have centered on strengthening safety by investing in navy bases. The navy coups in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have additional bolstered this development, with the creation of a joint pressure by the nations of the Alliance of Sahel States.
Strengthening safety has taken priority over developmental help for peripheral communities, who expertise the worst of the violence.
