We’re at a cocktail party in suburban Perth, a house away from residence for our diaspora. As company arrive, a Persian ballad performs within the background: Morq-e Sahar (Daybreak Hen), a freedom track, a century-old protest towards dictatorships and tyranny in Iran. This model was sung by the late Mohammad-Reza Shajarian, Iran’s most adorned maestro.
Daybreak hen, lament!Make my model burn much more.With the sparks out of your sigh, breakAnd flip this cage the wrong way up.
Shajarian’s virtuoso voice frames an previous query. One I’ve heard, it appears, at each Iranian gathering since my childhood. It hangs within the air like a cloud, unanswered, as company greet one another with customary bowing and rooboosi (cheek kissing). We settle round a desk laden with âjil (path combine), fruit and wine, the odor of saffron rice and ghorme sabzi (herb stew) throughout.
For me, the scene is each familial and acquainted. As is the query, which circles again round. “When will this regime change?” somebody asks. The “regime” is Nezâm-e Jomhuri-ye Eslâmi-ye Irân, or the Regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
A lacking voice
Because the launch of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion towards Iran final week, there was a voice typically lacking within the mainstream protection – that of the Iranian folks themselves.
“Israel is not our enemy, the regime is our enemy,” chant many Iranians in Tehran and within the diaspora, a standard sentiment in our group. They cite the regime that they’ve endured for 46 years because the 1979 Islamic Revolution: a authorities most of them oppose and reject, with the overwhelming majority of Iranians preferring democratic, if not secular, reform.
I hear some Iranians, on social media and in dialog with individuals who dwell there, commending Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for assassinating Iran’s high navy brass. These are the leaders of the Sepah, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), essentially the most highly effective department of the Iranian Armed Forces. Along with the mullahs – Iran’s Shia Muslim clerical class – they kind the spine of Iran’s authorities and economic system.
To this point, Israel has assassinated Hossein Salami, the pinnacle of the Revolutionary Guards, in addition to Mohammad Kazemi, its intelligence chief, plus senior nuclear scientists and dozens of different officers. Israel has additionally indicated an curiosity in killing Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, Iran’s supreme chief.
“Damet garm, aghayeh Netanyahu,” some Iranians are saying, actually “may your breath be warm”, or “good job, Netanyahu”. Amid the fear and confusion – to not point out the civilian deaths, to this point, of over 200 Iranians – there’s a uncommon and distinct sense of hope.
Iranian supreme chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran, Iran, June 4, 2025.
Iran’s supreme chief workplace handout/AAP
State of corruption
In view of Israel’s ongoing marketing campaign in Gaza, this assist for Israel could come as a shock to many Australians, and Western liberals typically. Definitely, reconciling Israel’s position in Gaza versus Iran is jarring.
However for now, I hear some Iranians saying “maybe our regime can finally be toppled”. Possibly Iran can reclaim its place within the worldwide group, because the proud and affluent nation it needs to be? As this disaster escalates, as buildings collapse and distressed Tehranis, together with my household, flee the capital for the protection of the countryside, there’s a heady sense of chance.
Wing-tied nightingale come out of the nook of your cage, andSing the track of freedom for human sort.Together with your fiery breath ignite,The breath of this peopled land …
I perceive the attract of this hope; to an extent, I really feel it myself. My household lives in Australia, not Iran, exactly due to the Iranian regime’s tyranny. We fled Iran in 1983 on account of political persecution, after many of the adults in our prolonged household had been arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned by the federal government.
Two of my imprisoned uncles and one in every of my aunties had been executed. One other uncle was crushed to dying in custody. My grandfather, a noble previous man, was imprisoned and tortured. We had been removed from distinctive; in the course of the Eighties, the federal government imprisoned tens of 1000’s of its personal folks, executing many 1000’s of them.
Little has modified since then. The Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards have proven a pervasive disregard for human rights. They execute extra of their very own folks than any nation besides China. They’re a world chief in using torture; they deny freedoms of expression and press, affiliation and meeting; they discriminate towards girls, ladies, spiritual minorities, LGBTI folks, and refugees. Tightly managed elections make sure the success of desired candidates.
Freedom Home, a nonprofit organisation based mostly within the US, offers Iran a rating of 11 out of 100 for its provision of political rights and civil liberties. For a lot of Iranians, it felt overdue when, in 2019, the US listed the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation, a call adopted by different nations, together with Canada and Sweden. In 2023, the European parliament overwhelmingly voted for a decision to do the identical, with calls to expedite this movement in early 2025.
In parallel to their human rights abuses, the Revolutionary Guard has hobbled the Iranian economic system. Their corruption, monetary incompetence and operation of black markets have compounded the consequences of worldwide sanctions. Consequently, the Iranian rial hit a historic low this 12 months. It’s now price round one twentieth of its worth in 2015.
Folks’s life financial savings have dwindled in worth, rendering older Iranians financially weak. Inflation was 38.7% in Could of this 12 months, down from highs of over 40%. My household in Iran expertise this as grocery and commodity costs that will rise in a single day, greater within the afternoon than within the morning. Some cities have skilled water cuts and energy outages.
Whereas it hasn’t but certified as a failed state, Iran has been failing.
Iranians drive previous a wall portray of Iranian supreme chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R) and late Iranian supreme chief Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (L), Tehran, Iran, June 1, 2025.
Abedin Taherkenareh/AAP
All of this has occurred regardless of the nation being richly endowed with the second- and third-highest pure gasoline and oil reserves on the planet, respectively. Iran has a GDP of over $US404 billion – thirty sixth on the planet. Its youth are extremely educated and literate, with extra girls enrolled in universities than males.
Fairly than accelerating the nation’s home improvement, nevertheless, the Iranian authorities has by its personal admission spent tens of billions of {dollars} to broaden its empire by funding terrorist proxies: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the just lately deposed Assad regime in Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The Iranian folks have suffered financially, however the Revolutionary Guards haven’t. They’re estimated to manage not less than 10%, and as much as 50%, of the nation’s whole economic system, together with as much as an estimated 50% share of Iran’s US$50 billion per 12 months oil earnings. They’ve achieved this by commandeering an industrial empire, made up of tons of of business firms, trusts, subsidiaries and nominally charitable foundations.
An additional US$2 billion or extra per 12 months comes from the federal government’s navy price range, with periodic boosts throughout crises. Add to this the alleged shadowy operation of black markets, extortion, and the smuggling of alcohol, narcotics and weapons, accounting for an estimated US$12 billion per 12 months in income.
Considering this corruption, I’m reminded of an anecdote from a private affiliate who labored for a agency affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard. They shared tales of officers, the nation’s purported “guardians of Islam”, internet hosting events the place alcohol, firearms and intercourse staff had been available.
My affiliate recounted a number of situations of fraud and theft, one in every of them monumental in scale. On this “tea smuggling scandal”, the Revolutionary Guard defrauded billions of {dollars} from a authorities fund by illicitly exchanging some funds on the open market, falsely labelling low-cost tea to on-sell as superior high quality tea, and falsely labelling domestically produced equipment as “Made in Germany”.
“They’re untouchable, and they know it”, my affiliate mentioned. One other Iranian group member described them to me as “Iran’s super-mafia”.
Chatting with household in Iran, they are saying lots of the center tier Revolutionary Guards dwell in their very own shahrak-ha (cities) with devoted markets, colleges and resorts. Lots of the Guards’ elite, in the meantime, dwell in mansions within the unique components of north Tehran, with kids who pursue conspicuously American “lifestyles of the rich and famous”. For an organisation that leads the chants of “marg bar America!” (dying to America), one wonders in the event that they see the irony on this.
Flip our darkish evening to daybreak
I discover myself sickened by the occasions of this warfare, and the hurt it’s inflicting. Struck with nervousness, a few of our members of the family in Tehran haven’t slept for days. “The Israeli bombardments are non-stop, and so loud,” one member of the family instructed me.
This week our prolonged household has struggled frantically to go away Tehran. Petrol is tough to come back by and, in a mass exodus, the bumper-to-bumper visitors stands nonetheless for hours. I do know among the neighbourhoods being bombed; we lived in one in every of them in my childhood.
“For every military commander that’s assassinated, a whole building might collapse, and with a dozen civilians trapped or killed,” one other individual instructed me, intimating that the civilian toll is greater than official counts.
Iranians stroll previous an image of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini because the nation marks the forty fifth anniversary of his return from exile in 1979, Tehran, February 2024.
Abedin Taherkenareh/AAP
I’m additionally frightened concerning the raised hopes of Iranians. I’ve seen this earlier than, when a spark – typically an inspirational act of braveness from an strange citizen – results in public surges in solidarity. At these moments throughout my childhood, my dad and mom would inform me that the regime’s time was restricted, it’s downfall inevitable. Iranians would see higher days and folks energy would prevail.
Fact and goodness rise like cream, my Dad would say, as if echoing Dr Martin Luther King’s arc of the ethical universe bending in direction of justice.
A lovely sentiment little doubt, however one which has grow to be troublesome to imagine over time. It typically seems that the universe’s arc bends in direction of energy, not justice. Equity appears the exception, hardly the rule. On the time, Dad’s reassurances had been protecting, even noble. However because the 1979 revolution and its aftermath have proven, may beats proper most days of the week.
The cruelty of the merciless and the tyranny of the hunterHave blown away my nest.O God, O Heavens, O Nature,Flip our darkish evening to daybreak.
As I clarify to Australian mates: how can a folks surpass a authorities that has (1) the navy on its aspect, (2) a stranglehold on oil income, and (3) a purported mandate from God?
Weapons, cash and a holy ebook – a tough trifecta to crack, and highly effective sufficient to draw a enough minority of cronies, backside feeders and sycophants.
What’s the scale of this ruling minority? It’s troublesome to make sure, however a 2023 survey of 158,000 respondents inside Iran discovered that solely 15% supported the Islamic Republic. Small, however enough to provide crowds burning American and Israeli flags. I’ve all the time marvelled on the regime’s potential to fabricate these pictures; I’m instructed by associates that they now use AI to provide a few of these.
Girls Life Freedom
As present occasions unfold, I discover myself deeply sceptical of all of the political actors, whether or not Iranian, Israeli, American, Arab or Russian. Because the Islamic revolution in 1979, none of them have proven any critical curiosity in supporting democratic reform in Iran. “They’ve all profited from this government,” a senior group member instructed me. “Why would that change now?”
For the sake of sanity, I discover myself trying to find credible sources of hope. The one one I decide on is religion within the Iranian folks themselves. This the tradition that has surrounded me since childhood, the qualities I’ve seen first hand in my countrywomen and males, whether or not younger or previous, residence or overseas, Muslim, Bahai or secular: a resilience, a resourcefulness, a propensity for pleasure, a confidence and pleasure in tradition, and a capability to prevail, over and once more.
It’s a brand new spring, roses are in bloom……O rose, look in direction of this lover,Look once more, once more, once more.
These qualities are periodically staged for the world to see. Iranian folks haven’t taken their oppression mendacity down, rising in (primarily) peaceable protests. There have been some 10 mass protests because the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The most important of those was the Inexperienced Motion in 2009, when it was estimated that over one million residents marched in Tehran alone. As just lately as Could 2025, strikes happened in over 150 cities, involving tons of of 1000’s of staff.
For essentially the most half, these demonstrations have been met with extreme repression by state authorities. One episode, from September 2022, deserves particular point out. The world watched in horror because the regime cracked down on younger girls in Iran. This was their response to the Zan Zendegi Azadi (Girl Life Freedom) motion, the place mass protests had been triggered by the dying in custody of Mahsa Jina Amini.
Amini was a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian lady who had been detained by the federal government’s “Morality Police” for sporting an improper hijab. Three days into her detention she died below suspicious circumstances. A leaked CT scan confirmed a cranium fracture and mind haemorrhage. This corroborated eyewitness accounts that Amini had been severely crushed by police.
Deliberately or not, a gown code infringement had been punished by dying. Even for Iranians lengthy accustomed to state violence, this was an excessive amount of. Mass protests erupted in additional than 100 cities throughout all of Iran’s 31 provinces.
Iranians protest the dying of Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police, in Tehran.
AAP
The protests had been led by girls, a lot of them defiantly eradicating their headscarves. True to its nature, the regime responded violently. Within the months that adopted, over 20,000 protesters had been imprisoned, many later testifying to having been tortured by means of electrical shock, flogging, waterboarding and rape.
Human Rights Watch estimates that over 500 civilians – together with 68 kids and adolescents – had been killed by safety forces, which included the paramilitary Basijis, Revolutionary Guard Corps, police and jail guards.
Issues would get darker. That December the regime was accused of intentionally poisoning over 1,200 college students at Kharazmi and Ark universities on the eve of a deliberate protest. Quickly thereafter, there have been allegations of poisonous gasoline assaults towards 1000’s of schoolgirls, in obvious retaliation for eradicating their hijabs. By 2024, the UN had accused Iran of a coordinated marketing campaign of crimes towards humanity, a declare rejected by the regime.
As an eye fixed surgeon, I used to be distressed to learn a letter signed by over 100 Iranian ophthalmologists detailing eye accidents amongst protesters. The letter alleged that safety forces had intentionally focused folks’s eyes with teargas canisters, rubber bullets and shotgun hearth, leading to traumatic accidents and irreversible blindness amongst protesters.
Dew drops are falling from my cloudy eyesThis cage, like my coronary heart, is slim and darkish.O fiery sigh set alight this cageO destiny, don’t choose the flower of my life.
There have been separate studies of ladies’s faces and genitals being focused by shotgun hearth. The regime appeared to have interfered with medical providers: protestors transported to police stations in ambulances had been arrested after surgical procedure or denied remedy. Docs had been reportedly coerced to produce false dying certificates to disguise the true reason for protestors’ deaths. The British Medical Journal documented healthcare professionals being arrested, intimidated, kidnapped or killed in retaliation for treating protesters.
If we didn’t comprehend it already, Zan Zendegi Azadi reminded us of the dangers, if not futility, of advocating for change in Iran.
When mass civil actions like this, carried out ten instances over, haven’t labored, what options are the folks left with? Brutalised and impoverished by their very own authorities, ought to we be stunned when a historically Islamic folks welcome a Jewish state’s decapitation of their political leaders? Is it not tempting, even when lazy, to invoke the historic comparability of Cyrus the Nice, Persian King of the Achaemenid Empire, who freed the Jewish folks from Babylonian captivity?
For the folks of Iran and Israel – on the threat of naivety and romanticism – are we approaching an age of karma?
O rose, look in direction of this lover,Look once more, once more, once more.O heart-lost hen, shorten, shorten, shorten,The story of separation.
An unsure situation
Relating to Operation Rising Lion, it’s secure to say that Iranians, like all wholesome group, maintain a variety of views.
At one finish of the spectrum, those that unconditionally condemn Israel’s assault ought to take into account that the Iranian authorities has stockpiled over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. Whereas not sufficient to construct a nuclear warhead, that is way more enriched uranium than is required for peaceable functions.
The Iranian authorities has additionally vowed to “wipe Israel off the map” for many years. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei lauded the October 7 terrorist assault by Hamas on Israeli civilians. In different phrases, Iran has mentioned to Israel “we want to annihilate you, we’ll celebrate your deaths, and we could do it with nuclear weapons if we wished to”.
On the opposite aspect of the coin, Iranians who salute Israel and the US as their saviours ought to take warning. The US director of nationwide intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declared as just lately as March 2025 that there was no proof that Iran was actively pursuing nuclear weapons, a discovering corroborated by over a dozen different US intelligence parts together with the CIA, the Nationwide Safety Company, and the Insitute for Protection Analyses.
One can not ignore the disturbing echoes of the 2003 warfare on Iraq, the place the absence of proof for weapons of mass destruction was deliberately misrepresented by the US and UK governments. The implications for Iraq have been disastrous.
As for Netanyahu and his administration, they’ve proven a ruthless pursuit of slim self-interest in Gaza. The deaths and accidents inflicted by the Israeli Defence Forces on greater than 50,000 Palestinian kids seem to have executed nothing to quell their ambitions.
With reference to Netanyahu himself, he’s dealing with corruption expenses that might lead to his home imprisonment and he has extra just lately been the topic of an arrest warrant by the Worldwide Prison Court docket for warfare crimes, together with hunger and homicide.
A girl mourns over the physique of Mohammadi Javad Naseri, who was reportedly killed in Israeli strikes within the northwestern Iranian metropolis of Tabriz, Monday, June 16, 2025.
Matin Hashemi/AP
What can Iranians be taught from this? The proof suggests this may very well be a warfare of ardour and opportunism for Israel, relatively than one in every of respectable self-defence. In any case, they don’t seem to be waging it for the advantage of Iranians.
Israel tends to set formidable navy objectives that it could actually’t obtain. Whereas it guarantees Operation Rising Lion will quickly finish, its monitor file suggests in any other case.
A protracted battle would see Iran’s civilian toll rise a lot greater. Energy outages and gasoline shortages have already begun; what occurs as soon as water, medical and meals shortage set in? Since Iran doesn’t enable many worldwide assist businesses onto its soil, who will come to the rescue of Iranians as issues escalate?
Fact’s life has come to an endFaith and constancy have been changed by the defend of warfare.Lover’s lament and beloved’s coyness,Are however lies and haven’t any energy.
Even when Israel succeeds in capturing or killing Iran’s supreme chief, Ali Khamenei, what occurs subsequent? With the Revolutionary Guard’s roots in place, there isn’t a assure, and in reality a low chance, of true democratic reform. In latest instances, overseas interference within the area has not gone properly. Take a look at Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria: all proof of catastrophic worsening after the elimination of autocrats.
This can be a advanced and unsure situation with little room for ethical grandstanding. Disabling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities may very well be a web win, however the method through which it’s being executed units a harmful precedent. For the Iranian folks, Netanyahu’s ambitions may finally show each heroic and villainous.
The cup of the wealthy is filled with pure wine,Our cup is crammed with our coronary heart’s blood.O anxious coronary heart, cry out aloudAnd keep away from those that have highly effective fingers.
As I watch protection of the warfare, I discover myself drifting again to Shajarian’s voice and to Morq-e Sahar, most likely for distraction and luxury. What’s actual is my religion in my fellow Iranians. Many examples involves thoughts. One, throughout a visit to Iran, was once I stayed with household at a roadhouse. That night, we heard music emanating from the courtyard and adopted some steps into an darkish basement beneath the lodging.
There we discovered a big gathering of younger Iranians, two dozen or extra women and men risking the regulation by hanging out collectively to sing. We joined them as strangers, seated on the ground and holding fingers at instances. Within the dim mild, the group sang and sang, a few them taking part in devices.
I can’t say I knew the songs or comprehended all of the lyrics; I didn’t have to, to know their that means. You could power our folks underground, you could cage them, bombard and even kill them. However you’ll by no means extinguish their everlasting Persian spirit.
O rosy-cheeked cup-bearer, give the fiery water,Play a joyful tune, O charming good friend.O unhappy nightingale lament out of your cage.Due to your grief my coronary heart isFull of sparks, sparks, sparks.
