The U.S. bombing of three Iranian nuclear amenities on June 22, 2025, despatched shock waves all over the world. It marked a dramatic reversal for the Trump administration, which had simply initiated negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program. Shelling out with diplomacy, the U.S. opted for the primary time for direct navy involvement within the then-ongoing Israeli-Iranian battle.
European governments have lengthy pushed for a diplomatic resolution to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. But, the response within the capitals of Europe to the U.S. bombing of the nuclear amenities was surprisingly subdued.
European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen famous Israel’s “right to defend itself and protect its people.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was equally supportive, arguing that “this is dirty work that Israel is doing for all of us.” And a joint assertion by the E3 – France, the U.Okay. and Germany – tacitly justified the U.S. bombing as vital to stop the potential of Iran growing nuclear weapons.
Europe’s responses to the Israeli and American strikes had been noteworthy due to how little they mentioned the legality of the assaults. There was no such hesitation when Russia focused civilian nuclear power infrastructure in Ukraine in 2022.
However the timid response additionally underscored Europe’s bystander position, contrasting with its previous strategy on that matter. Iran’s nuclear program had been a key point of interest of European diplomacy for years. The E3 nations initiated negotiations with Tehran again in 2003. Additionally they helped to facilitate the signing of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which additionally included Russia, the European Union, China, the U.S. and Iran. And the Europeans sought to protect the settlement, even after the unilateral U.S. withdrawal in 2018 throughout President Donald Trump’s first time period.
As a scholar of transatlantic relations and safety, I imagine Europe faces lengthy odds to as soon as once more play an impactful position in strengthening the reason for nuclear nonproliferation with Iran. Certainly, contributing to a brand new nuclear settlement with Iran would require Europe to repair a serious rift with Tehran, overcome its inner divisions over the Center East and handle a Trump administration that appears much less intent on being a dependable ally for Europe.
Rising rift between Iran and Europe
For European diplomats, the 2015 deal was constructed on very pragmatic assumptions. It solely coated the nuclear file, versus together with different areas of competition reminiscent of human rights or Iran’s ballistic missile program. And it supplied a transparent cut price: In trade for larger restrictions on its nuclear program, Iran might count on the lifting of some current sanctions and a reintegration into the world economic system.
In consequence, the U.S. withdrawal from the deal in 2018 posed a elementary problem to the established order. Moreover exiting, the Trump White Home reimposed heavy secondary sanctions on Iran, which successfully compelled international firms to decide on between investing within the U.S. and Iranian markets. European efforts to mitigate the impression of those U.S. sanctions failed, thus undermining the important thing advantage of the deal for Iran: serving to its battered economic system. It additionally weakened Tehran’s religion within the worth of Europe as a companion, because it revealed an lack of ability to carve actual independence from the U.S.
U.S. President Donald Trump walks previous French President Emmanuel Macron, middle, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, proper, in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 25, 2025.
Christian Hartmann/AFP through Getty Photos
After 2018, relations between Europe and Iran deteriorated considerably. Proof of Iranian state-sponsored terrorism and Iran-linked plots on European soil hardly helped. Furthermore, Europeans strongly objected to Iran supplying Russia with drones in help of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine – and afterward, ballistic missiles as nicely. On the flip facet, Iran deeply objected to European help for Israel’s battle within the Gaza Strip within the aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023, assaults.
These deep tensions stay a major obstacle to constructive negotiations on the nuclear entrance. Neither facet at present has a lot to supply to the opposite, nor can Europe rely on any significant leverage to affect Iran. And Europe’s wider challenges in its Center East coverage solely compound this drawback.
Inner divisions
In 2015, Europe might current a united entrance on the Iranian nuclear deal partly due to its restricted nature. However with the nonproliferation regime now in tatters amid Trump’s unilateral actions and the unfold of battle throughout the area, it’s now far tougher for European diplomats to place the genie again within the bottle. That’s significantly true given the current fissures over more and more divisive Center East coverage questions and the character of EU diplomacy.
Europe stays very involved about stability within the Center East, together with how conflicts would possibly launch new migratory waves like in 2015-16, when a whole lot of 1000’s of Syrians fled to mainland Europe. The EU additionally stays very lively economically within the area and is the most important funder of the Palestinian Authority. But it surely has been extra of a “payer than player” within the area, struggling to translate financial funding into political affect.
Partly, this follows from the longer-term tendency to depend on U.S. management within the area, letting Washington take the lead in attempting to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian battle. But it surely additionally displays the deeper divisions between EU member nations.
With international coverage selections requiring unanimity, EU members have typically struggled to talk with one voice on the Center East. Most just lately, the debates over whether or not to droop the financial affiliation settlement with Israel over its actions in Gaza or whether or not to acknowledge a Palestinian state clearly underscored the prevailing EU inner disagreements.
Except Europe can develop a standard strategy towards the Center East, it’s arduous to see it having sufficient regional affect to matter in future negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. This, in flip, would additionally have an effect on the way it manages its essential, however thorny, relations with the U.S.
Europe within the shadow of Trump
The EU was significantly happy with the 2015 nuclear deal as a result of it represented a powerful image of multilateral diplomacy. It introduced collectively nice powers within the spirit of bolstering the reason for nuclear nonproliferation.
Smoke rises from a constructing in Tehran after the Iranian capital was focused by Israeli airstrikes on June 23, 2025.
Elyas/Center East Photos/AFP through Getty Photos
Ten years on, the prospects of replicating such worldwide cooperation appear slightly distant. Europe’s relations with China and Russia – two key signers of the unique nuclear deal – have soured dramatically in recent times. And ties with america below Trump have additionally been significantly difficult.
Coping with Washington, within the context of the Iran nuclear program, presents a really sharp dilemma for Europe.
Attempting to carve a definite path could also be interesting, however it lacks credibility at this stage. Current direct talks with Iranian negotiators produced little, and Europe will not be able to provide Iran ensures that it will not face new strikes from Israel.
And pursuing an impartial path might simply provoke the ire of Trump, which Europeans are eager to keep away from. There has already been a protracted listing of transatlantic disputes, whether or not over commerce, Ukraine or protection spending. European policymakers can be understandably reticent to take a position time and sources in any deal that Trump might once more scuttle at a second’s discover.
Trump, too, is scornful of what European diplomacy might obtain, declaring just lately that Iran doesn’t need to discuss to Europe. He has as an alternative prioritized bilateral negotiations with Tehran. Alignment with the U.S., subsequently, might not translate into any nice affect. Trump’s determination to bomb Iran, in spite of everything, occurred with out forewarning for his allies.
Thus, Europe will proceed to pay shut consideration to Iran’s nuclear program. However, constrained by poor relations with Tehran and its inner divisions on the Center East, it’s unlikely that it’s going to carve out a serious position on the nuclear file so long as Trump is in workplace.
