Final July, a strong student-led rebellion in Bangladesh toppled the authoritarian, corrupt authorities led for 15 years by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Bangladesh now exhibits modest indicators of democratic restoration. Months into its tenure, a transitional authorities has reopened political and civic area, particularly at universities, and begun reforming key state our bodies.
But, violence and political retribution persist. This week, the interim authorities banned Hasina’s former get together, the Awami League, beneath the nation’s Anti-Terrorism Act whereas a tribunal investigates its position within the deaths of a whole bunch of protesters final yr.
Elections have additionally been delayed and will not occur till 2026.
Amid this fragile transition, interim chief Muhammad Yunus, the 84-year-old Nobel-prize successful economist, has emerged as a uncommon determine of belief and calm. His reputation is so excessive, in truth, many are calling for him to stay on the helm for one more 5 years.
Given the uncertainty, Bangladesh faces some uncomfortable questions: can it afford electoral democracy proper now? Or should stability come first, with democracy postponed till establishments can catch up?
And what occurs if emergency governance turns into the brand new regular?
Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was chosen to steer the interim authorities final yr.
Mahmud Hossain Opu/AP
Fraught highway to democratic renewal
In accordance with a worldwide democracy report, Bangladesh continues to be categorised as an “electoral autocracy” — one of many few within the class that truly obtained worse in 2024.
The opposition, mainly the Bangladesh Nationwide Social gathering (BNP), has mounted a fierce problem to the interim authorities’s legitimacy, arguing it lacks a democratic mandate to implement significant reforms.
Whereas the BNP and its former ally, the Islamist get together Jamaat-e-Islami, might attraction to segments of Bangladesh’s Muslim majority, their assist is undermined by reputational baggage and restricted resonance with youthful voters.
On the similar time, radical, right-wing, Islamist forces are exploiting the vacuum to reassert themselves, exacerbating tensions between Muslims and the Hindu minority.
1000’s of Islamist activists denounce proposed suggestions for making certain equal rights for Muslim girls at a rally in Dhaka on Might 3.
Mahmud Hossain Opu/AP
Economically, the nation can be nonetheless reeling from the injury achieved beneath Hasina’s regime.
Corruption hollowed out the banking system, leaving key establishments virtually bankrupt. Though Yunus has taken steps to stabilise the economic system by bringing in competent officers, uncertainty continues to dampen investor confidence.
Inflation stays excessive. And until job creation accelerates, particularly for the youth, the seeds of additional unrest are already planted.
As well as, legislation and order has deteriorated sharply. The nation’s police pressure has been tainted by its affiliation with the Alami League, and the previous police chief is dealing with fees of crimes in opposition to humanity.
Road crime is rising and minorities are experiencing rising harassment. Girls really feel deeply unsafe — each on-line and on the streets. Some events are additionally seen as a risk to countering violence in opposition to girls.
Regardless of sturdy legal guidelines on paper, weak legislation enforcement and victim-blaming are permitting violence to flourish. It’s very tough to carry perpetrators of crimes to account.
Bangladesh can be more and more remoted on the worldwide stage.
India, lengthy allied to Hasina’s authorities, has turned its again on the interim authorities. America is disengaging, as effectively. USAID had dedicated practically US$1 billion (A$1.6 billion) from 2021–26 to assist enhance the lives of Bangladeshis, however this funding has now been suspended.
Some features on civil liberties
This yr, Bangladesh improved barely in Freedom Home’s index on political freedoms and civil liberties, from a rating of 40 factors out of 100 final yr to 45. This can be a step in the correct route.
Among the many enhancements previously yr, the federal government has:
The appointment of recent election commissioners and the creation of advisory commissions for judicial and anti-corruption reform additionally sign an institutional reset in movement.
However features stay fragile. Whereas politically motivated circumstances in opposition to opposition figures have been dropped, new ones have emerged in opposition to former ruling elites. The navy’s policing position has expanded and harassment of Awami League supporters by protesters persists.
As well as, media freedom stays closely constrained, with a human rights group reporting the interim authorities had focused a whole bunch of journalists previously eight months.
On this fractured atmosphere, pressing reforms are wanted. However these should be sustainable, as effectively. Whether or not the interim authorities has the time, authority or assist to ship them stays doubtful. The federal government additionally must ship on its promise to carry free and honest elections.
A brand new get together on the rise
The nation’s politically engaged youth haven’t been dissuaded by these points. Somewhat, they’re making an attempt to reshape the political panorama.
The brand new Nationwide Citizen Social gathering (NCP) was fashioned in early 2025 by leaders of final yr’s pupil rebellion. It has positioned itself because the get together to deliver a “second republic” to Bangladesh. Drawing from historic fashions from France and the US, the get together envisions a brand new elected, constituent meeting and structure.
College students attend the launch of the brand new get together in Dhaka in February.
Mahmud Hossain Opu/AP
With organisational assist and tacit backing from the interim authorities, the NCP has quickly grown right into a viable political pressure.
Nonetheless, the get together faces a steep, uphill climb. Its broad, ideological umbrella dangers diluting its message, blurring its distinctions with the BNP.
For the NCP to show protests into coverage, it should sharpen its id, consolidate its base, and keep away from being co-opted or outflanked.
Whether or not this second of political flux results in actual transformation or one more cycle of disillusionment will depend upon how boldly — and the way sustainably— the interim authorities and new actors just like the NCP act. They usually should not draw out the method of transition for too lengthy.
