For a lot of April and into Could, a crew of negotiators from Indonesia have been in Washington to debate buying and selling relations between the world’s largest financial system and one other forecast to be within the Prime 5 inside a era.
The Southeast Asian nation was amongst these hit arduous by the across-the-board tariffs introduced on April 2, 2025, by President Donald Trump, with a proposed 32% levy on its exports to the U.S. Trump subsequently backpedaled, setting up a 90-day pause on any extra tariffs past a brand new 10% minimal.
To this point, Indonesia – whose-second largest export market is america – has signaled its intent to barter reasonably than reply with countermeasures like another nations focused by Trump, comparable to China and Canada.
Indonesia might even supply to chill out protectionist insurance policies geared toward boosting home manufactures as a concession. “People who have known me for a long time would say I’m the most nationalist person … but we have to be realistic,” stated President Prabowo Subianto.
The difficulty of Trump’s tariff coverage is a significant early check for Subianto, a right-wing populist whose worldview was formed by many years of army expertise. He views Indonesia and its place within the broader world by way of a lens of realist energy politics – wanting to make sure Indonesia possesses sufficient arduous army energy and strong financial efficiency.
By way of pushing each, Subianto hopes to make sure that Indonesia just isn’t simply swayed by international affect and might keep away from home discontent because of any financial malaise. His strategy to ruling the nation of over 280 million individuals is pushed by a need to retain pleasant relations with america and China, retaining shut financial and safety cooperation with each.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Indonesian International Minister Sugiono on the State Division in Washington, D.C., on April 16, 2025.
Jim Watson/AFP by way of Getty Photos
Good neighbors, multilateral growth
Since declaring independence from the Netherlands virtually 80 years in the past, Indonesia’s international coverage has been tied to a doctrine of “Bebas dan Aktif,” or “Free and Active.”
Formulated by the nation’s first president, Sukarno, on the onset of the Chilly Conflict, the coverage meant to maintain the nation formally nonaligned from any main energy bloc. Whereas shifting a lot nearer to the West and the U.S. through the subsequent longtime authoritarian presidency of Suharto, Jakarta retained its official impartial place in international coverage.
Subianto served within the army through the reign of Suharto, who was additionally at one level his father-in-law.
As Indonesia’s chief, Subianto has pledged to enact a so-called international coverage philosophy of “zero enemies, one thousand friends.” That strategy stems from two foremost issues. First, he seeks to safe financial agreements that may assist fulfill his promise of 8% annual financial progress. Second, he goals to strengthen protection procurement and safety cooperation to bolster Indonesia’s army place.
Towards multilateralism
As part of his imaginative and prescient, Subianto has tried to reframe a number of the issues which have lengthy guided Jakarta’s international coverage technique.
For many years, the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, has served as Indonesia’s collective safety buffer, forming a vital part of its “Mandala” – or concentric circles – international coverage perspective. Nonetheless, the present administration has to date appeared detached to utilizing the regional physique as a supply of projecting energy, as underscored by Indonesia’s absence from the ASEAN casual consultations on conflict-ridden Myanmar in December 2024.
That is only one of a number of indications that Subianto is trying to shift Indonesia’s function from a regional actor to an energetic international participant.
A vital growth in that extra assertive strategy got here with the nation’s accession in January 2025 to the BRICS teams of countries, the primary time a Southeast Asian nation has been admitted.
In an additional bid to multilateral engagement, Indonesia has initiated plans to pursue membership in two transnational financial groupings: the Organisation for Financial Cooperation and Growth, or OECD, and the Complete and Progressive Settlement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
A lot of this inclination towards multilateral engagement is rooted in Subianto’s worldview that may be summed up as this: “If you’re not at the table, you’re likely to end up on the menu.”
The essential China and US relationships
And but, regardless of Subianto’s broader multilateral ambitions, it’s the U.S. and China that stay the vital relationships.
Through the early weeks of his presidency, Subianto made China his first abroad bilateral go to. It resulted in agreements between China and Indonesia value as much as US$10 billion, primarily targeted on inexperienced vitality and expertise.
Chinese language President Xi Jinping meets Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Beijing, China.
Florence Lo/ Getty Photos
The go to, which was particularly notable provided that Jakarta appeared to maneuver nearer to China’s place on conflicting territorial claims within the South China Sea might be seen as a part of a broader shift towards Beijing.
China’s huge inhabitants already serves as a profitable export vacation spot for Indonesian items. Since 2016, China has been Indonesia’s largest export market, beating out Japan and the U.S.
That shift is more likely to choose up tempo in gentle of Trump’s tariffs, with Jakarta searching for to offset the growing price of American commerce. And although Jakarta has signaled neutrality concerning the broader U.S.-Chinese language dispute, officers in Jakarta and Beijing agreed in mid-April to spice up mutual protection cooperation within the South China Sea.
On the similar time, the U.S. holds a very essential place in Subianto’s thoughts. As a younger soldier, Subianto hung out at army bases within the U.S., the place he underwent particular forces and counterterrorism coaching.
He was later subjected to a journey ban from the U.S. from 2000 to 2020 on account of myriad allegations of human rights abuses associated to his time in Indonesia’s particular forces unit, Kopassus, which led to his being forcibly discharged from the Indonesian army in 1998.
But the ban was rescinded after then-President Joko Widodo appointed Subianto to be Indonesia’s protection minister, and he was subsequently invited to Washington in 2020 through the first Trump administration.
Washington was Subianto’s second official presidential go to vacation spot in November 2024. Throughout his journey, Subianto met with President Joe Biden to debate Indonesia-U.S. bilateral relations, regional safety points and numerous different international issues. Subianto additionally had a quick telephone name with President-elect Trump to congratulate him on his election victory.
That relationship with Trump is more likely to be a vital one now, particularly given the stakes of the mutual buying and selling relationship.
The U.S. is Indonesia’s second-biggest buying and selling accomplice, after China. The worth of commerce between the 2 events amounted to about $38.3 billion in 2024, with Indonesia exporting $28.1 billion to the U.S. whereas importing $10.2 billion. Searching for to keep away from tariffs of 32%, an Indonesian commerce delegation has been negotiating with Trump administration officers, signaling its intent to purchase extra American items, make commerce concessions and even decrease native content material necessities on Indonesian-made items to permit extra American-made elements.
Selling pragmatism
There are, in fact, ongoing variations between Indonesia and the U.S. – not solely the continued commerce problem but in addition different areas, together with the Israel-Hamas warfare. Indonesia, the most important majority Muslim nation on the planet, has been a staunch supporter of Palestinian rights and extremely vital of Israeli coverage.
But even right here, Subianto seemingly is open to pragmatism, with reviews that the Indonesian authorities is floating the concept of normalizing ties with Israel in a bid to ease entry into the OECD.
In an identical vein, one can anticipate that Subianto will go for pragmatism in his dealings with Trump, prioritizing Indonesia’s safety and protection cooperation with Washington, whereas sidestepping any points that may divide them alongside the best way.
Beneath Subianto, Indonesia is embarking on a international coverage that stresses the significance of sustaining strong and energetic bilateral ties with the U.S. On the similar time, it’s strengthening its China relationship. And away from each, it’s asserting its personal independence by way of bolstering its place in quite a few multilateral our bodies.
How Subianto handles these numerous dynamics is more likely to be a defining problem of his presidency.
