China has lengthy maintained that it doesn’t provide arms to any get together at conflict – a central tenet of its “noninterference” international coverage. However in recent times, Beijing has repeatedly confronted accusations of doing the other: offering direct army help to nations engaged in battle, whereas publicly denying doing so and even adopting a place of diplomatic neutrality.
That has seemingly been the case for 2 of China’s closest allies: Russia in its conflict towards Ukraine and Pakistan throughout its latest armed standoff with India in Could.
Now, Beijing is going through scrutiny over alleged army hyperlinks to Iran – a rustic engaged in a long-running shadow battle with Israel that not too long ago tipped right into a short-lived sizzling conflict.
After the ceasefire that adopted the 12-day conflict within the Center East, China reportedly provided batteries for surface-to-air missiles to Iran in change for oil. Such elements are a essential army want for Tehran after its air protection community was severely broken by Israeli missiles.
The Chinese language Embassy in Israel denied the stories, stating that China firmly opposes the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and doesn’t export arms to international locations at conflict. However China’s Ministry of Overseas Affairs has but to challenge an official assertion on the alleged switch.
As an knowledgeable specializing in China’s grand technique, I feel it’s extremely doable that China would supply Iran army help whereas denying it publicly. Such believable deniability would permit Beijing to claim army affect and showcase a few of its {hardware}, whereas deflecting worldwide criticism and preserving diplomatic flexibility.
However the tactic works solely up to now. As oblique proof accumulates, as many recommend it’s, such covert motion might progressively grow to be an open secret – resulting in what students time period “implausible deniability,” the place denial is not credible even whether it is nonetheless formally maintained.
An air-to-air missile on show on the fifteenth China Worldwide Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in November 2024.
Shen Ling/VCG through Getty Pictures
China’s help for Russia’s conflict
Though Beijing has persistently stated it’s impartial within the Russia-Ukraine conflict that broke out in 2022, China has, in observe, quietly supported Russia. Partially, that’s as a result of China shares the identical strategic purpose of difficult the Western-led worldwide order.
Lately, Chinese language Overseas Minister Wang Yi reportedly informed European Union international coverage chief Kaja Kallas that Beijing can’t afford to see Russia lose the conflict in Ukraine. He was stated to have warned {that a} Russian defeat would probably convey the complete pressure of U.S. strategic stress to bear on China.
From Beijing’s perspective, Moscow performs a significant function in preserving the West preoccupied, providing China helpful strategic respiratory room by diverting American consideration and assets away from the Asia-Pacific area.
Past deepening commerce relations which have grow to be a lifeline for Moscow’s financial system beneath Western sanctions, China has reportedly provided Russia with massive portions of dual-use items – items that can be utilized for civilian and army functions – to boost each Moscow’s offensive and defensive capabilities, in addition to to spice up China’s military-industrial manufacturing. Beijing has additionally allegedly offered satellite tv for pc imagery to help Russia on the battlefield.
Whereas the U.S. and Europe have repeatedly tried to name out China for aiding Russia militarily, Beijing has persistently denied such claims.
Most not too long ago, on April 18, 2025, Ukraine formally accused China of straight supporting Russia and slapped sanctions on three Chinese language-based companies that Kyiv stated was concerned in weapons manufacturing for the Russian conflict effort.
In what has grow to be a standard chorus, China’s Overseas Ministry rejected the Ukrainian accusation, reaffirming that China has by no means offered deadly weapons to any get together within the battle and reiterating its official stance of selling a ceasefire and peace negotiations.
A Chinese language Overseas Ministry spokesperson gestures for questions throughout a day by day briefing in Beijing in 2020.
AP Photograph/Ng Han Guan
China’s quiet backing of Pakistan
Beijing has lengthy introduced itself as a impartial get together within the India-Pakistan battle, too, and has known as for restraint on either side and urged peaceable dialogue.
However in observe, China is allied with Pakistan. And the direct army help it has offered to Lahore seems pushed by China’s want to curb India’s regional affect, counterbalance the rising U.S.–India strategic partnership and defend the China–Pakistan Financial Hall, a large bilateral infrastructure venture.
Within the newest flare-up between India and Pakistan in Could, Pakistan deployed Chinese language-made J-10C fighter jets in fight for the primary time, reportedly downing 5 Indian plane.
Pakistan’s air protection relied closely on Chinese language tools throughout the brief battle, deploying Chinese language-made surface-to-air missile techniques, air-to-air missiles, superior radar techniques and drones for reconnaissance and strike operations. Total, greater than 80% of Pakistan’s army imports have come from China prior to now 5 years.
In what can be a much more stark instance of army help if confirmed true, the deputy chief of India’s military alleged that China had offered Pakistan with real-time intelligence on Indian troop actions throughout the battle.
When requested to reply, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Overseas Affairs stated they’d no information of the matter. They reaffirmed that China’s ties with Pakistan are usually not directed towards any third get together and reiterated Beijing’s long-standing place in favor of a peaceable decision to any India–Pakistan dispute.
Extending ‘deniability’ to Iran?
Like with Russia and Pakistan, Iran has more and more been seen as a associate to China.
In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year, US$400 billion complete cooperation settlement that lined commerce, power and safety, signaling the depth of their strategic relationship.
The accord was indicative of the strategic worth Beijing locations on Iran. From Beijing’s perspective, Tehran presents a counterbalance to the affect of the U.S. and its allies – particularly Israel and Saudi Arabia – within the area and helps divert Western assets and a focus away from China.
However not too long ago, Tehran’s place within the area has grow to be far weaker. Not solely has its air protection infrastructure suffered badly within the confrontations with Israel, however its regional proxies and allies – Hamas, Hezbollah and the Assad regime in Syria – have both been devastated by Israel or collapsed altogether.
Smoke rises over Tehran, Iran, following an Israeli strike on June 23, 2025.
Nikan/Center East Pictures/AFP through Getty Pictures
Underneath these circumstances, it’s strategically compelling for Beijing to offer help to Tehran to be able to preserve regime stability.
Certainly, Beijing has regularly circumvented sanctions on Iranian power, with an estimated 90% of Iran’s oil exports nonetheless going to China.
Though Beijing didn’t lengthen any substantive help to Iran throughout the 12-day conflict, stories have abounded since that Iran is trying to China instead provider of its protection wants. The pondering right here is that Russia, Tehran’s conventional army associate, is not capable of present enough, high quality protection tools to Iran. Some influential social media posters in China have gone so far as advocating for direct army gross sales by Beijing.
If China does do that, I imagine it’s more likely to observe the identical playbook it has used elsewhere by denying involvement publicly whereas covertly offering help.
Doing so permits China to take care of diplomatic ties with Iran’s regional rivals, reminiscent of Israel and Saudi Arabia, whereas concurrently benefiting from a turbulent Center East that distracts Washington and grants Beijing strategic respiratory room.
China’s use of believable deniability displays a broader strategic ambition. Particularly, it needs to claim affect in key regional conflicts with out triggering open backlash. By quietly supporting companions whereas sustaining a facade of neutrality, Beijing goals to undermine Western dominance, stretch U.S. strategic focus and safe its personal pursuits – and all whereas avoiding the dangers and duties of open army alignment.
