After weeks of rising Channel crossing figures, the UK authorities has agreed on a long-awaited migration cope with France. Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron introduced a “one in, one out” pilot – and the UK prime minister mentioned the “groundbreaking” scheme may begin returning migrants to France inside weeks. The deal was introduced alongside a separate settlement to coordinate the usage of French and British nuclear weapons.
The migration settlement will enable the UK to return chosen numbers of small boat arrivals to France. In trade, the UK will admit an equal variety of asylum seekers with reputable ties to the UK (resembling household), who haven’t beforehand tried to enter the nation illegally.
The plan will begin as a pilot, with preliminary stories suggesting the UK may return as much as 50 individuals per week (2,600 per 12 months). That’s roughly 6% of small boat arrivals in 2024. The remaining arrivals will proceed to be processed beneath the UK’s current system.
The “one in, one out” system seems just like an settlement in 2016 between the EU and Turkey. Below that scheme, for each irregular migrant returned from the Greek islands to Turkey, one Syrian refugee who had stayed in Turkey could possibly be legally resettled within the EU. Below the EU–Turkey deal, solely 2,140 migrants had been returned to Turkey by 2022, in contrast with over 32,000 who had been resettled within the EU.
The British authorities’s hope is that this pilot will lay the groundwork for a broader EU-UK return framework that will enable it to return extra individuals. Earlier than Brexit, the UK was a part of the EU’s asylum framework, the Dublin regulation. This allowed any EU nation, together with the UK, to return asylum seekers to the primary EU nation they entered or handed by.
From 2008 to 2016, the UK was a internet sender of asylum seekers: it returned extra individuals to EU states than it accepted, receiving fewer than 500 individuals yearly. The pattern reversed after 2016, with the UK accepting extra migrants than it returned.
However southern EU nations may complicate any enlargement or everlasting implementation of the pilot. Italy, Spain, Greece, Malta and Cyprus have opposed a UK–France settlement, fearing it could result in extra individuals being despatched again to them – southern European states are the place migrants usually arrive within the EU first.
Challenges forward
The deal is a big step for a UK authorities that has struggled to manage the narrative on migration. Shedding floor to Reform, the federal government has lately proposed tightening authorized immigration guidelines, together with by making it more durable and longer to amass British citizenship, and by slicing authorized migration routes.
It additionally marks a notable shift within the UK’s post-Brexit migration technique. However questions stay in regards to the particulars and implementation.
The French president hailed it as a “major deterrent” to Channel crossing, as migrants wouldn’t stay within the UK however be returned to France. Macron mentioned that one-third of arrivals in France are heading in the direction of the UK. So it follows that any deterrent from Channel crossings would additionally result in a discount in individuals coming to France.
But, as I’ve proven in my analysis, deterrence is never efficient. It’s because details about deterrence elements doesn’t essentially attain the asylum seekers or cease smugglers. It additionally doesn’t handle the underlying drivers of migration, resembling poverty, battle and corruption.
Furthermore, returns are notoriously troublesome to implement. Many asylum seekers lack documentation, and sophisticated authorized processes increase administrative and monetary prices.
Scalability additionally poses a problem, given EU nations’ divided stances on an EU-wide deal.
It’s, nevertheless, promising that the UN refugee company has given the settlement its backing, stating: “If appropriately implemented, it could help achieve a more managed and shared approach, offering alternatives to dangerous journeys while upholding access to asylum.”
The final UK authorities’s makes an attempt to discourage Channel crossings, such because the Rwanda scheme, had led to the company elevating critical issues.
What number of asylum seekers does the UK take?
This deal comes amid a rise in asylum functions within the UK. Annual functions rose from 38,483 in 2018 to over 108,000 in 2024.
In simply the primary half of 2025, small boat arrivals elevated 48% in contrast with the identical interval in 2024, exceeding 20,000. In contrast, irregular arrivals to the EU decreased by 20% within the first half of 2025, primarily pushed by a drop in arrivals to Greece and to Spain’s Canary Islands.
When accounting for inhabitants, the UK receives fewer asylum functions – 16 for each 10,000 individuals dwelling within the UK – than the EU common (22 per 10,000).
Knowledge exhibits that between 2018 and 2024, 68% of small boat asylum functions processed within the UK had been authorized, indicating that the majority had been made by individuals in real want.
A Border Drive vessel brings a gaggle of migrants into Dover after a small boat incident within the Channel.
Gareth Fuller/Alamy
UK–France migration cooperation dates again to the Nineteen Nineties, however since 2019, the main target has been on addressing the rise in Channel crossings.
A big step was the UK-France joint declaration of March 2023, beneath which the UK dedicated €541 million (roughly £476 million) between 2023 and 2026. Funds had been allotted for property together with drones, helicopters and plane, and for the creation of a migration centre in France. Importantly, the settlement sought to extend surveillance alongside the French border, somewhat than return migrants.
This cooperation deepened in February 2025, when each nations agreed to increase their partnership to 2027 and reallocate €8 million for brand spanking new enforcement measures.
Joint maritime actions have performed a task too: since October 2024, UK Border Drive vessels have entered French waters on three events to help boats in misery and return individuals to the French coast.
General, this new settlement represents a milestone in UK–France migration cooperation, and the UK’s first important post-Brexit returns scheme with an EU nation. Whereas questions stay over its scalability – given the modest return numbers, authorized and logistical hurdles, and European political divides – it’s a essential step in cross-Channel cooperation on migration and asylum, making progress on what has been an intractable drawback for UK governments.
