As Israel continues its assaults on Iran, US President Donald Trump and different international leaders are hardening their stance in opposition to the Islamic Republic.
Whereas contemplating a US assault on Iran’s nuclear websites, Trump has threatened Iran’s supreme chief, claiming to know his location and calling him “an easy target”. He has demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran.
In the meantime, nations reminiscent of Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran totally abandon its nuclear program.
So, because the stress mounts on Iran, has it been left to struggle alone? Or does it have allies that might come to its support?
Has Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ totally collapsed?
Iran has lengthy relied on a community of allied paramilitary teams throughout the Center East as a part of its deterrence technique. This method has largely shielded it from direct army strikes by the US or Israel, regardless of fixed threats and stress.
This so-called “axis of resistance” consists of teams reminiscent of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Well-liked Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, in addition to Hamas in Gaza, which has lengthy been beneath Iran’s affect to various levels. Iran additionally supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria earlier than it was toppled final yr.
Members of the Well-liked Mobilisation Forces (PMF) carry pictures of comrades killed in US airstrikes in western Iraq in 2024.
Ahmed Jalil/EPA
These teams have served each as a regional buffer and as a method for Iran to challenge energy with out direct engagement.
Nonetheless, over the previous two years, Israel has dealt important blows to the community.
Hezbollah — as soon as Iran’s strongest non-state ally — has been successfully neutralised after months of assaults by Israel. Its weapons shares have been systematically focused and destroyed throughout Lebanon. And the group suffered a serious psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential chief, Hassan Nasrallah.
In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the autumn of Assad’s regime, stripping Iran of one other key foothold within the area.
That stated, Iran maintains robust affect in Iraq and Yemen.
The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, stays formidable. The Houthis have equally sized contingent of fighters in Yemen.
Ought to the scenario escalate into an existential risk to Iran — because the area’s solely Shiite-led state — spiritual solidarity may drive these teams to grow to be actively concerned. This is able to quickly broaden the struggle throughout the area.
The PMF, for example, may launch assaults on the two,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Certainly, the top of Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of many PMF’s extra hardline factions, promised to take action:
If America dares to intervene within the struggle, we’ll straight goal its pursuits and army bases unfold throughout the area with out hesitation.
Iran itself may additionally goal US bases within the Persian Gulf nations with ballistic missiles, in addition to shut the Strait of Hormuz, by means of which about 20% of the world’s oil provide flows.
Houthi supporters maintain anti-US and Israel placards and wave the flags of the Iran-backed ‘axis of resistance’ throughout a protest in Yemen’s capital.
Yahya Arhab/EPA
Will Iran’s regional and international allies step in?
A number of regional powers keep shut ties with Iran. Essentially the most notable amongst them is Pakistan — the one Islamic nation with a nuclear arsenal.
For weeks, Iranian Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran extra intently with Pakistan in countering Israel’s actions in Gaza.
In an indication of Pakistan’s significance within the Israel-Iran struggle, Trump has met with the nation’s military chief in Washington as he weighs a attainable strike on its neighbour.
Pakistan’s leaders have additionally made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has supplied Iran’s president “unwavering solidarity” within the “face of Israel’s unprovoked aggression”. And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif just lately stated in an interview Israel will “think many times before taking on Pakistan”.
These statements sign a agency stance with out explicitly committing to intervention.
But, Pakistan has additionally been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged different Muslim-majority nations and its strategic companion, China, to intervene diplomatically earlier than the violence spirals right into a broader regional struggle.
In recent times, Iran has additionally made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, reminiscent of Saudi Arabia and Egypt, with a purpose to enhance relations.
These shifts have helped rally broader regional help for Iran. Practically two dozen Muslim-majority nations — together with some that keep diplomatic relations with Israel — have collectively condemned Israel’s actions and urged de-escalation.
It’s unlikely, although, that regional powers reminiscent of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would help Iran materially, given their robust alliances with the US.
Iran’s key international allies, Russia and China, have additionally condemned Israel’s strikes. They’ve beforehand shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions on the UN Safety Council.
Nonetheless, neither energy seems keen — a minimum of for now — to escalate the confrontation by offering direct army help to Iran or participating in a standoff with Israel and the US.
Theoretically, this might change if the battle widens and Washington brazenly pursues a regime change technique in Tehran. Each nations have main geopolitical and safety pursuits in Iran’s stability. This is because of Iran’s long-standing “Look East” coverage and the impression its instability may have on the area and the worldwide economic system.
Nonetheless, on the present stage, many analysts imagine each are unlikely to become involved straight.
Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, certainly one of Russia’s closest allies within the area. Not solely is it targeted on its struggle in Ukraine, Russia additionally wouldn’t need to endanger enhancing ties with the Trump administration.
China has supplied Iran robust rhetorical help, however historical past suggests it has little curiosity in getting straight concerned in Center Japanese conflicts.
